US TSYS: What to Watch: Heavy Round of Data Includes GDP
Jan-26 12:22
Tsys mildly weaker, off recent lows, 30YY currently 3.6323% (+.0386), yield curves adding to Wed bounce: 2s10s +2.172 at -66.787, modest volumes (TYH3 <200k) w/ China, Taiwan and Vietnam still out for Lunar New Year.
- Data kicks off at 0830ET (prior, est):
- Wkly Claims (190k, 205k), Continuing Claims (1.647M, 1.658M)
- GDP Price Index(4.4%, 3.2%), GDP ann'd QoQ 3.2%, 2.6%)
- Personal Consumption (2.3%, 2.8%); Core PCE QoQ (4.7%, 3.9%)
- Retail Inv MoM (0.1%, 0.2%); Wholesale MoM (1.0%, 0.5%)
- Durable Goods Orders (-2.1%, 2.5%); ex-trans (0.1%, -0.2%)
- Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.1%, -0.2%); ship (-0.1%, -0.4%)
- New Home Sales (640k, 611k); MoM 5.8%, -4.5%) at 1000ET
- Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -9, -7) 1100ET
- Treasury auctions: $75B 4W and $60B 8W bills at 1130ET; $35B 7Y Note Sale (91282CGJ4) at 1300ET
- Equity earnings continue: announced this morning: ADM ($1.93), AAL ($1.17), JBLU ($0.22), DOW ($0.85), LUV (-$0.37), VLO ($8.15), TROW ($1.16), NOC ($13.46), ROK ($2.46), SHW ($1.89). Still expected before the open: MA, NUE, CMCSA, BX.
- After the close: WY, INTC, OLN, V
- Fri: AXP, CVX, and CL
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US TSYS: What to Watch
Dec-27 12:05
Modest improvement in risk sentiment after China said it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers in early January - Tsys drifting near overnight lows on very light volumes (TYH3<85k).
- Carry-over weakness w/ US$ index lowest levels in six months, extended losses from last week when data showed that US core PCE prices, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, fell to a four-month low of 4.7% YoY in Nov.
- Over the weekend Klaas Knot told the FT, "...with five policy meetings between now and July 2023, the ECB would achieve 'quite a decent pace of tightening' through half percentage point rises in the months ahead before borrowing costs eventually peaked by the summer." - ECB playbook w/ US curve is projecting the same, w/ peak rate projected by the US Fed Fund curve being May and June'23 contracts at 95.07 or 4.93%.
- Upcoming data at 0830ET (prior, est): Retail Inventories MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%); Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.5%, 0.4%); Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$99.0B, -$96.3B). Followed by FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.8%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-1.24%, -1.20%); YoY (10.43%, 8.0%) at 1000ET; Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-14.4, -15.0) at 1030ET.
- Busy day for Tsy auctions: US Tsy $54B 13W, $45B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET; US Tsy $ 42B 2Y Note auction (91282CGD7) w/ $34B 52W bill auction at 1300ET.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Inventories, Trade Balance, Tsy 2Y Note Sale
Dec-27 11:20
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Dec-27 0830 Retail Inventories MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%)
- Dec-27 0830 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.5%, 0.4%)
- Dec-27 0830 Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$99.0B, -$96.3B)
- Dec-27 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.8%)
- Dec-27 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-1.24%, -1.20%); YoY (10.43%, 8.0%)
- Dec-27 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-14.4, -15.0)
- Dec-27 1130 US Tsy $54B 13W, $45B 26W bill auctions
- Dec-27 1300 US Tsy $ 42B 2Y Note auction (91282CGD7) w/ $34B 52W bill auction
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Dec-27 06:23
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 03-Jan | 0930 | Dec | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 04-Jan | 0001 | Dec | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 04-Jan | 0930 | Nov | BOE M4 / Lending |
| 05-Jan | 0930 | Dec | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) |
| 05-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE Dec DMP Survey |
| 06-Jan | 0930 | Dec | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Jan | 1615 | BOE Mann Panellist at American Economics Association | |
| 08-Jan | 1300 | BOE Pill Panellist at American Economics Association | |
| 09-Jan | ---- | ---- | House of Commons Returns |
| 11-Jan | 0001 | Dec | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 13-Jan | 0700 | Dec | UK Monthly GDP/Services/Production/Trade/Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 18-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Inflation report |
| 18-Jan | 0930 | Dec | ONS House Price Index |
| 20-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
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