FED: Watching Schmid and Logan Amongst Today’s Solid Fedspeak Slate
Apr-10 10:35
- Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (’26 voter) offered the first FOMC official reaction to yesterday’s US escalation of China tariffs and broader 90-day pause. He sees a little less inflation impact if the tariff pause endures after yesterday’s dramatic changes although still sees a high bar for cutting rates, having earlier in the day published an essay arguing against moves in either direction (with the consideration of a hike helping build on the hawkish takeaway from his remarks).
- There’s a solid line-up of Fedspeak after today’s CPI report, where we expect a continuation of patient rhetoric after various speakers yesterday (Daly, Kashkari, Musalem and Barkin).
- We expect the most hawkish commentary to come from Schmid (’25 voter) on the economy and policy at 1000ET (text tbd, Q&A) followed by Logan (’26 voter) at 0930ET albeit in welcoming remarks. The two last spoke in February, an age ago considering the extent of recent developments:
- 0930ET – Logan (’26, hawk) welcome remarks at Dallas Fed event on “Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration”. She tends to focus on balance sheet matters although on Feb 14 said that even if inflation eases it doesn’t mean there’s room to cut rates.
- 1000ET – Bowman (permanent voter, hawk) Senate nomination hearing for VC Supervision role (text + Q&A). Whilst clearly going to be focused on financial regulatory matters, she noted on Mar 7 that the neutral rate has likely risen since the pandemic.
- 1000ET – Schmid (’25, hawk) on economic outlook and mon pol (text tbd, Q&A). He last spoke on Feb 27, with a huge amount changed since then, when he was focused on inflation and noted risks appeared to be to the upside.
- 1200ET – Goolsbee (’25, dove) at Economic Club of NY (text tbd, Q&A). The preeminent dove on the FOMC, he hinted at the importance of liaison programs on Apr 8, saying “we can’t really wait to the end of the quarter plus one month before we find out that investment really dropped off and GDP growth is shrinking, and we start seeing layoffs, unemployment, or on the other side, inflation starts soaring”. The day before he'd sounded his most hawkish in some time: "The anxiety is if these tariffs are as big as what are threatened on the US side, and if there’s massive retaliation, and then if there’s counter retaliation again, it might send us back to the kind of conditions that we saw in ‘21 and ‘22, when inflation’s raging out of control.”
- 1200ET – Harker (’26 role but retiring Jun’25, leaning dove) on fintech (text only). He said Mar 6 that with all this uncertainty, the Fed doesn’t want to move quickly. The economy was doing well but with some signs of concern.
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BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 4/12-month TCs
Mar-11 10:35
| Maturity | Jul 10, 2025 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Amount | E801mln | E1.841bln |
| Target | E2.4-2.8bln | Shared |
| Previous | E808mln | E1.018bln |
| Avg yield | 2.333% | 2.257% |
| Previous | 2.314% | 2.192% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.29x | 1.81x |
| Previous | 2.63x | 2.47x |
| Previous date | Mar 04, 2025 | Mar 04, 2025 |
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz
Mar-11 10:32
| 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz | Previous | |
| ISIN | DE000BU22080 | |
| Total sold | E4.5bln | E4.5bln |
| Allotted | E3.497bln | E3.54bln |
| Avg yield | 2.22% | 2.14% |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.84x | 2.11x |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.37x | 2.68x |
| Average Price | 99.958 | 100.119 |
| Low acc. Price | 99.955 | 100.115 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.957 | 100.115 |
| Previous date | 18-Feb-25 |
LOOK AHEAD: JOLTS, 3Y Auction
Mar-11 10:25
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET.
- 11-Mar 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.6M, 7.600M), Rate (4.5%, 4.5%)
- 11-Mar 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.197M, 3.176M), Rate (2.0%, --)
- 11-Mar 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
- 11-Mar 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note Auction (91282CMS7)
