NATURAL GAS: Volatile TTF Pulls Back From Peak

TTF is falling back today as the volatile trading this month continues with tight supply concerns weighed against high natural gas storage levels and subdued industrial demand. Warm weather in Europe and Asia could increase competition for LNG supplies although the higher TTF prices this week pushed the JKM-TTF spread back into negative territory.

• TTF JUL 23 down -7.3% at 28.77€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -3.6% at 44.71€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.5% at 44.25€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures in NW Europe well above normal in the coming week although could ease back slightly cooler in the second next of the outlook. Temperatures in central Europe are also generally holding above normal while southern areas remain slightly cooler.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are today up again slightly to 248.4mcm/d with flows still limited by the ongoing field and processing plant maintenance.
• Total European LNG sendout is holding around 370mcm/d with imports down slightly from the high levels seen in May but still above levels seen this time last year. The Sabine Pass LNG export terminal in the US is still undergoing maintenance and the outage at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG continues until 14 June while maintenance takes place at the Montoir LNG import terminal and Dragon LNG this week.
• European gas injections remain below normal but total storage is now up to 72.27% full on 11 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 55.1%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.2mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 66.3mcm/d.