Two notch down grade by Fitch from B+ to B- with outlook remaining on negative. We have previously highlighted the serious weakness in Vestel credit (see link: https://mni.marketnews.com/4dF908b) and find it difficult to see how the company can continue to service its ST debt with even more expensive ST debt.
Fitch highlights the usual margin deterioration, coverage ratios and liquidity concerns as we have also done. However, the agency expects adj EBITDA margins to improve to 7.2% at the end of FY25, while adj leverage to remain elevated at 7.6x at the end of 2025.
Co. calculated leverage at the end of 2024 was 6.8x, which exceeded covenant levels of 3.5x on the USD500mn bond. The agency believes the company still has room to raise further debt under the bond documentation.
We think the key is not to raise further expensive debt that the company can’t afford to service but to restructure the business with potential asset sales or equity injection.
TD Securities see “more room for USD front-end outperformance on a cross-market basis”.
They believe that the expected “inflation bump in both the U.S. (H2) and UK (Q3) will be temporary supply- rather than demand-driven.”
TD also highlight that “even though the UK's growth dynamics are closer to the Euro area, it still has a stronger beta to U.S. markets”
Meanwhile, they expect “the ECB to ease to 1.5% or lower only if global conditions worsen. In that scenario again, it’s more like that the U.S. (or GBP) front-end still outperforms vs. EUR”.
As a result, they recommended paying EUR 1y1y vs. GBP 1y1y/USD 1y1y.