IRAN: VANCE: REITERATES IRAN SHOULDN'T HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPON – BBG

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below. remain mixed on net after large 10Y call buyer helping drive early volumes. Underlying futures bounced around midday, driven by negotiations to reopen the Hormuz Straight are continuing even after Trump's order to blockade all traffic had taken effect. Projected rate moves swing to mildly tighter vs. early morning lvls (*): Apr'26 at +.1bp (.6bp), Jun'26 at -.1bp (+.7bp), Jul'26 at -1.9bp (.1bp), Sep'26 at -3.1bp (.1bp), Oct'26 -4.4bp (-2.1bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +9,000 0QN6 96.00/96.25 put spds, 4.5 ref 96.515
  • 4,000 SFRU6 96.18/96.31 2x1 put spds, 7.5 ref 96.325
  • +10,000 0QK6 96.50/96.62/96.75 call trees, 1.5-1.75 ref 96.465
  • -2,500 0QK6 96.00/96.12 put spds, 1.25
  • -4,000 SFRK6 96.31 calls, 3.75 ref 96.315
  • +5,000 SFRK6 96.50/96.56 call spds cab ref 96.312
  • -4,000 SFRZ6 96.81/97.31 call spds, 4.25 ref 96.34
  • -6,250 SFRM6 96.00/96.12 put spds, .75 ref 96.31
  • 2,000 SFRZ6 95.87/96.25 put spds, 8.5
  • 5,000 0QU6 97.00/97.50 call spds ref 96.505
  • 1,500 SFRN6 96.06/96.25/96.37 broken put flys
• Treasury Options:
  • 3,000 FVM6 109 puts ref 108-04.5
  • 2,000 USM6 114/117 1x2 call spds, 40 ref 113-23
  • 5,000 FVK6 108/108.25 put spds
  • 4,000 FVM6 108.5/109/109.5/110.25 broken call condors ref 108-05.75
  • 10,000 TYK6 109 puts, 3 ref 111-01.5
  • +30,000 TYK6 112.5 calls, 3 ref 110-25.5 to -26
  • over 10,800 TYK6 111.5 calls
  • +5,000 TYM6 112.5 calls, 15 ref 110-30.5
  • +3,000 FVK6 108 puts, 15 ref 108-03.25
  • -1,850 FVK6 108.25 puts, 22 ref 108-03.25
  • 2,000 TYK6 109.5 puts, 5 ref 110-30
  • 1,500 TYK6 110/110.5 put spds, 6 ref 110-30
  • 2,500 wk3 TY 111.25 calls, 8 ref 110-31 (exp 4/17)

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.03/160.46 High Apr 7 / High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 159.74 @ 16:20 BST Apr 13  
• SUP 1: 158.49 Low Apr 9
• SUP 2: 157.93 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

The primary trend set-up in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position that highlights a dominant medium-term uptrend. The recovery from last week’s low reinforces current conditions and scope is seen for a climb towards 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 157.93, the 50-day EMA. 

• -3,560 UXYM6 113-20, post time bid at 1416:40ET, DV01 $319,000.
• The 10Y ultra contract trades 113-20.5 last (+4.5)