EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Uzbekneftgaz (UNGUZB): Fitch Affirms

• There has been little reaction in local assets to the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys for Q3, having approached the release with CAD bottom of the G10 FX pack and GoCs outperforming Treasuries.
• BoC-dated OIS holds around 19bp of cuts priced for the Oct 29 decision, with CPI for September (tomorrow) and retail sales for Aug/Sep flash (Thu) before then.
• GoC yields still trade 2.5-3.5bp lower on the day across the curve, with the Can-US 2Y yield differential at -111bp (-3bp on the day).
• USDCAD at 1.4038 holds the day’s gains despite robust equity gains. Technicals suggest a bullish trend sequence remains intact, with resistance at 1.4080 (Oct 16 high and bull trigger) before 1.4111 (Apr 10 high) whilst support is at 1.3965 (20-day EMA).   
• The BOS outlook was near unchanged at a subdued -2.3 in Q3 after -2.4 whilst the outlook for future sales fell from 6 to -2.
• Chiming with a tepid outlook, firms’ 1Y inflation expectations are now only slightly above late-2024 levels. “Businesses continue to expect cost increases due to tariffs and trade uncertainty. However, many said that weak demand is limiting their ability to pass these cost increases through to their selling prices.”

ERH6 98.125/98.000 call spread, sold for 3.75 in 6k (vs 33% delta at 98.065)

• Also sold for 4.00 in 1k around 35 mins ago.

   

SFIH6 96.30/50 1x2 call spread, paper pays 2.25 in +4.5k (bought the 1 leg)