ISRAEL: US/Israel Eye Compr. Gaza Deal, Backed By Threat Of New IDF Offensive
Israel and the US appear to be pivoting strategy away from an incremental Gaza ceasefire to a comprehensive deal, after the latest round of mediated talks with Hamas stalled. The FT reports that Israel is “threatening to expand its military offensive into additional areas of Gaza in a bid to increase pressure on Hamas...” The piece chimes with an Al Monitor report, highlighted by MNI on 29 July: See: Israeli Officials To Present New Gaza Strategy To US Counterparts
- NYT reports PM Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump are "working on a deal that would present Hamas with an ultimatum: release the remaining hostages and agree [to disarm], or Israel’s military campaign would continue."
- Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said Trump wants to “shift” Gaza policy, while an Israeli official said: “There will be no more partial deals,” per Semafor.
- Witkoff said Saturday: "Hamas has said it is prepared to demilitarize... multiple Arab governments are now demanding that Hamas demilitarizes. So we are very very close to a solution..." According to Axios, Hamas responded by stressing “it will not disarm before the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.”
- A renewed Israeli offensive in Gaza is likely to invite more international pressure on the Netanyahu govt. CNN reports that a new letter to recognise a Palestinian state is gaining signatures in the US House of Representatives, following pledges from France, the UK, Canada, and Portugal to conditionally recognise a Palestinian state in September.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3674/3776 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3607 @ 16:12 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. S/T gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3776. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6548 @ 16:05 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 0.6521 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6468/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.61 High Jul 03
- PRICE: 170.22 @ 16:04 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 169.04 Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 167.87 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.66 50-day EMA
EURJPY traded higher on Thursday resulting in a print above 170.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for extension. This would open 170.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 167.87, the 20-day EMA.
