MEXICO: USDMXN At One-Month Lows As Bearish Theme Remains Intact

Nov-12 11:56
  • USDMXN price action is muted ahead of the NY crossover, with the pair holding near 1-month lows around the 18.30 handle. Gains for the peso yesterday came amid encouraging comments from Economy Minister Ebrard on US trade talks, which he said he hopes to conclude this month. Ebrard said that he will probably travel to the US to conduct the negotiations.
  • For USDMXN, a bearish theme remains intact, with sights on 18.2008, the Sep 17 low. A breach of this would open 18.1837, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull leg, ahead of the 18.000 handle.
  • On the data front, the calendar remains light for the rest of the week, with ANTAD same-store sales figures potentially crossing at some point. Next week’s calendar is busier, with final Q3 GDP stats and September economic activity data, as well as the minutes to Banxico’s recent MPC meeting where it delivered another 25bp cut to 7.25%. Speaking earlier this week, Banxico Governor Rodriguez said that she sees a cut of the same magnitude as likely in December, while there is no predetermined path for next year, with incoming data key.
  • Elsewhere, Deputy Finance Minister Maricarmen Bonilla is due to speak at a pension fund association event on retirement funds investment impact in the Mexican economy. Meanwhile, auto association AMIA will hold an event on the global challenges for the autos sector from 1900GMT(1400ET).

Historical bullets

SOFR OPTIONS: Goldman Recommend Mid-Curve Hedge Against Trade War Escalation

Oct-13 11:55

Late on Friday Goldman Sachs recommended going long the 0QZ5 97.25 calls at 8.0, targeting 16.0, with a stop set at 8.0 as a “tactical hedge against the risk that tariff concerns escalate”. The situation has obviously calmed a little over the weekend.

US: Bessent Sees Trump Post Turning Table on China

Oct-13 11:53

"[RTRS] BESSENT ON CHINA TRADE: TRUMP'S FRIDAY SOCIALMEDIA POST TURNED THE TABLES; CHINA MADE A MISCALCULATION" - Reuters

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Healthy Options Activity Continues

Oct-13 11:35

Latest Euribor trades:

  • ERZ5 98.0625 call vs 97.9375 put combo. Paper pays 0.75 for the call in 5k (vs 97.98 spot, 46% delta).
  • ERM6 98.375/98.625 1x1.5 call spread, paper pays up to 1.5 in 5k