FOREX: USDJPY Uptrend Extends, Ignoring Verbal Warnings
- The Japanese yen has weakened again Wednesday, with USDJPY’s move higher notable given further FX jawboning from Finance Minister Katayama, who reiterated authorities are closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
- This has led USDJPY to erase the ADP-driven losses from Tuesday, and then accelerate through 154.50, a level that had been holding across early November. Furthermore, 154.80 has also been cleared, placing the pair at the highest level since February. This puts sights on 155.35, a Fibonacci projection. A number of cross-Yen also stand at noteworthy levels, CHFJPY for example sees fresh all-time highs at 193.82.
- EURCHF (-0.23%) sees further downside pressure as a function of the looming US-Swiss trade deal, to session lows of 0.9246 at typing. This keeps the extremely significant support cluster between 0.9206-22 for EURCHF in high focus for those looking for a break to the lowest levels since the peg removal in 2015. Meanwhile USDCHF (-0.15%) has tracked further back below the 0.8000 handle.
- Internal criticism from a senior Labour party member weighed on GBP this morning, followed by a sudden move lower that may have been flow or fix related. On net, GBPUSD sits at 1.3118, with first support and the bear trigger for the pair at 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 lows.
- US MBA Mortgage applications as well as Canada building permits highlight the data calendar today. A set of Fed speakers is scheduled for today, while ECB's de Guindos and BoE's Pill are also set to speak but likely won't move the needle. The US government is expected to reopen tomorrow if the House expectedly signs the deal on that today.
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SOFR: Long Setting & Short Cover Seen In Futures On Friday
OI data points to net long setting dominating in the whites, reds and blues, while net short cover was more prominent in the greens as the SOFR futures strip bull flattened on Friday in reaction to the increase of Sino-U.S. trade tensions.
| 10-Oct-25 | 09-Oct-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,430,329 | 1,424,311 | +6,018 | Whites | +8,794 |
SFRZ5 | 1,531,713 | 1,531,691 | +22 | Reds | +37,014 |
SFRH6 | 1,172,773 | 1,187,832 | -15,059 | Greens | -4,770 |
SFRM6 | 1,033,596 | 1,015,783 | +17,813 | Blues | +10,430 |
SFRU6 | 1,008,351 | 990,203 | +18,148 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,018,275 | 1,004,947 | +13,328 |
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SFRH7 | 806,967 | 791,555 | +15,412 |
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SFRM7 | 776,549 | 786,423 | -9,874 |
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SFRU7 | 678,414 | 678,380 | +34 |
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SFRZ7 | 746,480 | 759,000 | -12,520 |
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SFRH8 | 432,431 | 433,217 | -786 |
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SFRM8 | 374,639 | 366,137 | +8,502 |
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SFRU8 | 301,608 | 298,323 | +3,285 |
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SFRZ8 | 333,395 | 331,185 | +2,210 |
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SFRH9 | 194,386 | 191,742 | +2,644 |
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SFRM9 | 171,839 | 169,548 | +2,291 |
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US TSY FUTURES: Net Long Setting Further Out The Curve Dominated On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU, TY, US & WN) & short cover (FV & UXY) as Tsy futures bull flattened on Friday.
- The net long setting in US & WN futures tilted the curve-wide positioning bias in that direction.
| 10-Oct-25 | 09-Oct-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,608,833 | 4,588,576 | +20,257 | +791,916 |
FV | 6,738,869 | 6,763,480 | -24,611 | -1,076,876 |
TY | 5,393,544 | 5,388,428 | +5,116 | +347,166 |
UXY | 2,451,982 | 2,457,634 | -5,652 | -514,160 |
US | 1,919,327 | 1,908,839 | +10,488 | +1,358,314 |
WN | 2,062,865 | 2,044,211 | +18,654 | +3,557,670 |
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| Total | +24,252 | +4,464,031 |
