The head of the RBA's Economic Analysis area, Michael Plumb, has given a speech this morning, titled - "Recent Developments in Inflation and the Economic Outlook." See the full speech at this link .
- It looks to be very in line with post RBA guidance after the recent rate rise earlier in Feb. Essentially, while the RBA sees some of the recent pick up in inflation as temporary, growth has been stronger than forecast and that some slowing in growth is likely needed to ensure inflation returns to target over the medium term.
- Plumb states: "In short, we assess that much of the pick-up in inflation was due to some sector-specific price pressures that we expect to dissipate in coming quarters. But overall growth in demand also looks to have been stronger than expected in the second half of last year, adding to existing economy-wide capacity pressures and therefore inflation. Consequently, our forecasts for inflation over the coming year have been revised higher. The February forecasts assume a higher path for the cash rate over the forecast period, consistent with financial market pricing. Alongside the unwinding of some temporary drivers of demand, this is expected to constrain growth in overall demand and bring the economy close to balance by the end of the forecast period – though this is subject to considerable uncertainty and, as always, there are risks around this central forecast."
- Plumb also notes on the new monthly CPI measure: "As we have noted, the RBA welcomes the introduction of a complete monthly CPI, as more frequent (and complete) data has material benefits for the timeliness of our read on inflation. The monthly CPI is Australia’s primary measure of headline inflation and the benchmark variable for the inflation target. But, as with anything new, it will take us some time to understand the properties and seasonal patterns of the data. While we learn about the monthly data, for a time we will continue to focus on the quarterly data for forecasting and assessing underlying inflationary pressures. In particular, as you saw in our February forecasts, we continue to forecast the quarterly trimmed mean measure of inflation."