JPY: USD/JPY - Attempting To Break Above 155.00, Officials Pushing Back
The overnight range was 154.49 - 155.04, Asia is currently trading around 154.80. The pair continued to build on its upward momentum and tested the 155.00 area overnight where it stalled on its first attempt. The return of a positive sentiment in risk has brought the focus in USD/JPY back to the 154-155 resistance area. A sustained break above this area is needed to potentially see the uptrend have another extension higher, the focus would then turn toward the 160 area where I would start to become wary of intervention risks. On the day the support toward 154.30-154.50 needs to hold in order to have another test of the 155.00 area. More Jaw-Boning from Katayama overnight points to officials understanding what the risk of a move back through this area poses.
- MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Will Cut In Dec, More Next Year-Reinhart. The Federal Reserve is likely to take out additional insurance against further labor market weakness by lowering interest rates again in December, and new leaders at the FOMC could cut borrowing costs more aggressively than the gradual easing likely to be depicted in the Summary of Economic Projections, former Fed Board division of monetary affairs chief Vincent Reinhart told MNI.
- The Head of FX strategy at Rabobank had this to say on Bloomberg Television, “We can’t write off the risk of a December interest-rate hike from the Bank of Japan, the market is going to be wary about 155 in dollar-yen.”
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($978m Nov17) - BBG.
- The USD/JPY Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 101 Points
- Data/Event : PPI, Weekly Investment Flows
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW2.6tn 2-Year Bonds
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$19 Bn 182-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$68.346 Bn 91-Day Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell THB65 Bn of 91-Days Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 96D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 182D SVBI Bills
- Malaysia to Sell MYR5 Bn 2030 Bonds
- China to Sell CNY40bn 2045 Bonds
- MAS to Sell S$14.6 Bn 28-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$1.8 Bn 252-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$22.1 Bn 84-Day Bills
- Taiwan to Sell NT$30 Bn 10-Year Bonds
- Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
- Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
- Indonesia To Sell 2027 Sukuk Bonds (PBS003)
- Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
- Indonesia To Sell 2041 Sukuk Bonds (PBS039)
- Indonesia To Sell 25D Sukuk Bills (SPNS10112025)
- Indonesia To Sell 172D Sukuk Bills (SPNS06042026)
- Indonesia To Sell 270D Sukuk Bills (SPNS13072026)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Singapore GDP YoY 3Q A |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Singapore GDP SA QoQ 3Q A |
| 0830GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | India Wholesale Prices YoY SEPTEMEBER |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
GOLD: Gold’s Bull Cycle Continues But Looking Stretched
Gold rose strongly on Monday up 2.3% to $4110.27/oz making another record high at $4117.13, 1.4% above the last record. It trended higher throughout the day driven by safehaven flows on fears of a rekindled US-China trade war despite a stronger US dollar and risk appetite. US President Trump sounded optimistic that the trade issues would be sorted but China’s President Xi threatened to retaliate if the 100% tariff is implemented on November 1. The ongoing US government shutdown is also supporting the gold rally.
- Gold broke above round number resistance at $4100 and Fibonacci projection $4113.5 opening up another at $4161.7. The bull cycle continues but is now signalling overbought. TD Securities noted that algorithmic and discretionary macro positioning have been stretched for some time and are contributing to gold’s vulnerability.
- Silver outperformed rising 4.4% to $52.372 close to the intraday high at $52.404. Monday’s strength was driven not just by safe-haven flows but also by extremely constrained liquidity in London. On Friday, silver lease rates (proxy for borrowing costs) in London jumped over 30% m/m boosting rates for gold and palladium too, according to Bloomberg.
- The white metal is now up 12.3% this month with the bull trend continuing as it broke above resistance at $52.386, a Fibonacci projection. It remains vulnerable to even small outflows though as the market size is significantly smaller than gold’s.
