ASIA FX: USD/IDR Higher On Onshore Protests
In South East Asia FX, USD/IDR gains are the standout. We last tracked near 16445/50, against earlier highs of close 16494. Indonesian asset markets have been under pressure in the aftermath of onshore protests. Via BBG: "Indonesia is bracing for more protests on Friday after a motorcycle taxi driver was killed in clashes between demonstrators and the police, fueling public anger against the government and raising questions about President Prabowo Subianto’s handling of dissent." (see this link). Earlier headlines also crossed that BI has been in the market to stabilize IDR. Local equities are off over 2%.
- Elsewhere, markets are more quiet. USD/PHP has been supported sub 57.00 after yesterday's BSP cut, but recent ranges prevail.
- USD/THB is around 32.35/40, up from earlier lows of 32.26. A Thailand court is also expected to decide the fate of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra today.
- USD/MYR is under 4.2200, little changed for Friday dealings so far.
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EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring A Bearish Engulfing Candle
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8705/69 50% of Jul 28-29 sell-off / High Jul 27 & bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8656 @ 06:31 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: 0.8649/42 20- day EMA/Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: 0.8584 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend set-up in EURGBP remains bullish, however, Monday’s price pattern - a bearish engulfing candle - does signal a potential short-term reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8649 was pierced on Tuesday, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The 50-day EMA lies at 0.8584. For bulls, a move through 0.8769, the Jul 27 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
FRANCE DATA: Q2 Flash GDP Skewed Higher By Inventories
French Q2 flash GDP was slightly stronger than expected at 0.3% Q/Q (vs 0.1% cons and prior). However, the details of the print are not strong: Inventory investment contributed 0.5pp to the quarterly print (vs 0.7pp prior), with final domestic demand dragging 0.1pp and net exports pulling GDP down by 0.2pp.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Trading Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 107.267 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 107.233 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 107.155 Low Jul 28
- PRICE: 107.100 @ 05:58 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
Schatz futures traded sharply lower last week resulting in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.221. The 50-day EMA is at 107.267. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.
