FOREX: USD Outperforming, AUDNZD Surges to Fresh Cycle High Above 1.13
Sep-24 09:05
- Over the course of the European morning, the US Dollar is trading with a supportive tone. Despite most major pairs remaining well within the post-Fed ranges, the likes of EUR and GBP have extended session declines to just shy of 0.4% in recent trade. For EURUSD, the solid amount of option expiries between 1.1750/1.18 appears to have capped the overnight price action, with the pair slowly edging back below 1.1775 as we approach the NY crossover.
- GBPUSD has traded through the 50-day EMA and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat.
- Firmer-than-expected monthly CPI data in Australia is prompting some Aussie outperformance, with AUDUSD currently up 0.15% and bucking the stronger dollar theme. Market participants have been more focussed on AUDNZD, which has extended its impressive rally on Wednesday to trade to a fresh cycle high of 1.1317. Resistance remains scant on the chart until 1.1491, the 2022 high. It is also worth noting that the NZ government has appointed Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman to be the new RBNZ governor.
- The low yielders have been under pressure this morning, with USDJPY notably rising to within 10 pips of the post Fed highs at 148.38. Uncertainty regarding Japanese politics and the upcoming LDP leadership election may be playing its part here, while moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. Furthermore, the impressive grind higher for the likes of EURJPY and CHFJPY bolster the bearish yen theme.
- US new home sales is the main data point later today, before Thursday’s SNB decision and US jobless claims data.
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GERMAN DATA: A Sixth Consecutive Improvement For Ifo Business Climate
Aug-25 08:35
The Germany Ifo business climate index increased for a sixth consecutive month in August as it takes it to the high of its range for the past eighteen months, but it still suggests little material upside to tepid German real GDP growth despite this.
- The Ifo Business Climate index was close to expectations as it slightly improved in August to 89.0 (cons 88.8) from 88.6 in July.
- Whilst still subdued by historical standards, it’s nevertheless at its highest since Apr 2024 on the back of six consecutive monthly improvements.
- This trend improvement has come with increases in both the current assessment and more notably the expectations indexes. This expectations-led improvement continued this month, with the expectations index rising to 91.6 (cons 90.5) from 90.8 vs the current assessment edging a tenth lower to 86.4 (cons 86.7).
- A seeming post-pandemic structural break with the historical fit between the business climate index and real GDP growth complicates the readthrough to growth implications, although rolling z-scores have more recently been useful.
- Here, the Ifo business climate has started to look a little more optimistic than the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index (to July) but even then the Ifo series suggests little upside to still tepid German real GDP growth of 0.2% Y/Y as of Q2 (having averaged -0.4% since 1Q23).
MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
Aug-25 08:00
- MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
MNI EXCLUSIVE: China's equity market and economic impacts
Aug-25 07:54
- Advisors and analysts share their outlook on China's equity market and its economic impact.
- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
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