FOREX: USD Index Rally Extends, Narrows Gap to Recovery Highs
Nov-19 17:51
- The ongoing concerns related to AI valuations and the associated shaky risk sentiment continue to provide a safe haven bid for the greenback, with the USD index significantly extending higher on Wednesday. Gains have been exacerbated in late trade by the confirmation that the Fed will not receive any additional jobs reports before the December meeting.
- On data fog grounds, front-end rates now price a smaller chance of a December cut (around 9bps), cementing the bullish intra-day theme for the greenback. Overall, the short-term DXY uptrend remains intact, having been well supported by the 50-day EMA since early October. The index has notably risen back above the 100 mark, and hovers within 30 pips of the recovery highs at 100.36. A break above 100.48 (May 29 high) would be a broader bullish development for the dollar.
- The consistent declines for the likes of AUD and NZD today highlight a pessimistic backdrop as market participants await the release of Nvidia earnings after the close tonight. NZDUSD continues to exhibit clear underperformance, with the pair falling over 1% and trading below 0.5600, the lowest level for the pair since April. Support appears scant until the year’s lows at 0.5486.
- Importantly, dollar gains today have been broad based, with the advances of USDJPY (+0.85%) and USDCHF (0.70%) reflective of this dynamic. USDJPY has now surpassed meaningful resistance at 156.75, the Jan 23 high.
- The Japanese yen has been proving immune to the recent equity weakness and the more forceful verbal FX warnings from Japanese officials. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between Japan/China, disappointing Q3 GDP data and fiscal related uncertainty continue to provide a pessimistic domestic backdrop.
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Philly Fed Non Mfg, Redbook Retail Sales
Oct-20 17:49
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 10/21 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-12.3, --)
- 10/21 0855 Redbook Retail Sales Index
- 10/21 1130 US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US TSY OPTIONS: Nov'25 30Y Broken Put Flys
Oct-20 17:40
- 1,560 USX5 116.5/117/118 broken put flys ref 118-24
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