FOREX: USD Fade Leads EURUSD Pierce Above 50day-EMA
Nov-13 10:18
- The fade in the USD sees the USD Index dip below 99.20 for the first time since October 30. Price action keeps the short-term series of lower lows and lower highs in the dollar index intact. This put upward pressure on EURUSD, with the pair briefly piercing the 1.1622 50-day EMA (which also marks the 76.4% retracement for the Oct 28 - Nov 05 downleg). Key resistance remains into the 1.1669 Oct 28 high.
- USDJPY remains capped into the 155.0 handle, having tested the mark on three occasions over the past two days, potentially building a short-term resistance zone around that area. BoJ's Ueda appeared content overnight, saying underlying CPI is gradually moving toward the bank’s 2% target, and that the mechanism in which wages and prices rise moderately in tandem will be maintained.
- A resumption of the uptrend in USDJPY after dollar-driven weakness this morning would put sights on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 153.03, the 20-day EMA.
- AUD outperforms (+0.5%) following stronger-than-expected overnight labour market data, with jobs growth doubling consensus. The recent trend, if sustained, is likely to keep RBA rates on hold in the short-term given the Q3 increase in price pressures and uncertainty over policy restrictiveness. Today's price action in AUDUSD undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The move higher has exposed resistance at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high.
- With the reopening of the US government imminent, markets await any advisories or updates on release schedules for now much-delayed data. ECB's Elderson, BoE's Greene and SNB's Tschudin are scheduled to appear next to a set of speakers from the Fed.
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SONIA OPTIONS: Large downside Put Fly
Oct-14 10:17
SFIH6 96.25/96.05/95.85p fly, bought for 5.25 in 11k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Test A Key Support Zone
Oct-14 10:08
- In the equity space, a sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday appears corrective - for now. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6602.32, and last Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The key support zone to monitor is 5552.07 - 5478.12, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Condor buyer
Oct-14 10:06
SFIH6 96.35/96.45/96.50/96.60c condor, bought for 1.5 in 2k.
