MNI NBP WATCH: Governor's Dovish Remarks Make Feb Meeting Live

This week’s Poland National Bank policy meeting is likely to be live, with strong wage, construction and industrial output data allowing for a potential rate hold, but January’s guidance and a possible further slowdown in inflation meaning a 25-basis-points cut is also possible. (See MNI EM NBP WATCH: Rates Held At 4% As Expected)

The NBP lowered rates six times in 2025, before holding in January even as December inflation was 0.1pp down on the previous month at 2.4%. That might have confirmed a majority of analysts’ expectations that the bank would wait until March’s Inflation Report before easing again, were it not for Governor Adam Glapinski’s dovish remarks in the press conference.

Glapinski’s ruling in of a February rate cut does not mean this is guaranteed, especially since he has since also stated that the next cut could come in February, March or April. But his view of price developments from December-January remains unclear. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: Jury Out On 2026 Inflation - NBP's Tyrowicz)

Flash inflation data for January is not published until Feb 13, with a revision in mid-March, by which time the CPI basket will also have been updated. Producer price inflation fell from -2.3% to -2.4% as the downward impact of cheaper Chinese imports on tradable goods becomes more visible.

Should the NBP wish to leave policy rate at 4% for a while longer, Glapinski can point to stronger wage growth at the end of last year - up from 7.1% in November to 8.6% in December - albeit pushed up by annual bonuses.

Growth in industrial output rose to 7.3% over the same period - a level not seen since late summer/early autumn, while construction output spiked to +4.5%. Polish GDP growth finished the year strongly at 3.6%, a level likely to be at least matched in 2026. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Polish Banks See Tax Hikes Persisting)

What the NBP does on Wednesday, policymakers will stress that they are comfortable with the current situation, and confident that they are in the fine-tuning stage, though Glapinski may soon downgrade his view of the terminal rate from 3.5%.