US PREVIEW: US Weekly Macro Data / Fed Speakers Calendar
In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, we get the minutes to the January Fed meeting which while stale after the latest data will be watched for the discussion on heightening the bar to further easing. We also get the advance Q4 national accounts release and December personal income and outlays report both on Friday.
See calendar below:
| Date | ET | Impact | Event | |
| 16-Feb | 825 | Fed's Michelle Bowman | ||
| 17-Feb | 830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 17-Feb | 1000 | ** | NAHB Home Builder Index | |
| 17-Feb | 1245 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | ||
| 17-Feb | 1430 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | ||
| 18-Feb | 700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 18-Feb | 830 | *** | Housing Starts | |
| 18-Feb | 830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders | |
| 18-Feb | 855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 18-Feb | 915 | *** | Industrial Production | |
| 18-Feb | 1300 | Fed's Michelle Bowman | ||
| 18-Feb | 1400 | *** | FOMC Minutes | |
| 18-Feb | 1600 | ** | TICS | |
| 19-Feb | 820 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | ||
| 19-Feb | 830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 19-Feb | 830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | |
| 19-Feb | 830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 19-Feb | 830 | Fed's Michelle Bowman | ||
| 19-Feb | 900 | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | ||
| 19-Feb | 1000 | ** | NAR Pending Home Sales | |
| 19-Feb | 1700 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | ||
| 20-Feb | 830 | *** | GDP / PCE Quarterly | |
| 20-Feb | 830 | *** | Personal Income and Consumption | |
| 20-Feb | 945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) | |
| 20-Feb | 945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (Flash) | |
| 20-Feb | 945 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | ||
| 20-Feb | 1000 | *** | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers | |
| 20-Feb | 1000 | ** | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation | |
| 20-Feb | 1000 | *** | New Home Sales | |
| 20-Feb | 1245 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Thursday
| 0300BST | 1100HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia Nov External Debt |
| BoK Rate Decision | |||
| Philippines Nov Overseas Remittances | |||
| India Dec Unemployment Rate |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
NZD: NZD/USD - Trades Sideways, Bears Looking For Momentum To Test 0.5700
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5737 - 0.5756, Asia is trading around {NZD Curncy}. The NZD traded sideways overnight as US stocks ended the session lower but the USD pulled back strongly against the JPY and KRW in particular as verbal jaw-boning increases. The NZD has put in what looks like a top around 0.5850 and while this continues to cap I suspect the short-term could see bounces initially faded. On the day, the NZD bears will be feeling a little more comfortable, watching for sellers again back toward 0.5760-0.5780 as the shorts look for some momentum to build for a retest of the 0.5700 area.
- CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers slightly increasing their short positions in the NZD, -40649(Last -37981). The Leveraged community reduced their own shorts that they had just begun to build quite aggressively, -10605(Last -14480).
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5600(NZD351m Jan 16), 0.5800(NZD420m Jan 16), 0.5895(NZD300m Jan 19} - BBG
- The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 39 Points
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Thursday
| 2350BST | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Dec PPI |
| 0000BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Jan Consumer Inflation Expectation |
| 0001BST | 0801HKT | 1101AEDT | UK RICS House Price Balance |
| 0135BST | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | New Zealand 2030, 2035, Bond Sale 2050 Linker Bond |
| BoK Rate Decision |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
