US TSYS: Tsys Up on Lower Than Expected ADP Jobs, ISM Services, Powell Patient
Dec-04 20:30
- A flurry of early Wednesday data helped set the stage for renewed support in Treasuries: lower than expected ADP jobs gains and ISM Services data underpinned rates in the first half.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is on a path to bring interest rates back down to a more neutral level over time but because the economy appears stronger than previously thought it can move more cautiously in Q&A at a New York Times DealBook Summit.
- Nevertheless, projected rate cuts into early 2025 continued to gain, current levels vs. this morning's (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -18.9bp (-18.5bp), Jan'25 -25.3bp (-24.4bp), Mar'25 -41.3bp (-39.0bp), May'25 -51.5bp (-47.8bp).
November's ISM Services index saw its biggest drop since June, falling unexpectedly to a 3-month low 52.1 from 56.0 (a more modest dip to 55.7 had been expected). - ADP employment was broadly as expected in November at 146k (cons 150k). It followed a solid downward revision to 184k from what was 233k, attributed by ADP to the latest QECEW data. “Our annual benchmarking of the full data series will occur with the January 2025 NER release.”
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AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag
Nov-04 20:30
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6654/6696 20- and 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6619 Low Sep 11
- PRICE: 0.6582 @ 17:05 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 0.6537 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation signal. Note that the pair has cleared 0.6576, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A continuation lower would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6654, the 20-day EMA.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: FERC Rejects Amazon Nuclear Power Plans
Nov-04 20:19
- Stocks have bounced off midday lows, S&P Eminis and Nasdaq indexes near steady while the DJIA continues to trade in the red late Monday. Little has changed since the last summary with Utilities and Communication Services sectors underperforming. Currently, the DJIA trades down 251.64 points (-0.6%) at 41800.92, S&P E-Minis down 11.25 points (-0.2%) at 5746.75, Nasdaq down 25.4 points (-0.1%) at 18214.46.
- Event risk tied to Tuesday's Presidential election and Thursday's FOMC rate decision has many accounts close to the sidelines, while the current earnings cycle still has a way to go. Expected after today's close: Diamondback Energy, AIG, Illumina, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Wynn Resorts and Palantir Technology.
- Independent power and multi-energy providers weighed on the Utility sector after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted against a proposed deal for a nuclear plant to be restarted to power an Amazon data center: Constellation Energy -11.51%, Public Service Enterprise Group -6.52, Vistra -3.01%. Interactive media and entertainment shares continued to weigh on the Communication Services sector: Comcast -2.16%, Alphabet -1.01%, Paramount -0.96%.
- Conversely, Energy and Real Estate sectors led gainers, oil and gas stocks underpinned by a rise in crude prices (WTI +2.01 at 71.50): EQT +4.10%, Exxon Mobil +2.76%, Diamondback Energy +2.4%. Real Estate investment trusts gaining: Simon Property Group +1.68%, UDR Inc +1.62%.
FED: MNI Fed Preview - Nov 2024: Analyst Outlook
Nov-04 20:12
- (Note to readers: This update of our Nov 1 preview includes analyst expectations starting Page 28)
- Based on the 31 previews of the November FOMC meeting seen by MNI, analysts are unanimous that the Fed will cut by 25bp in both November and December. However all acknowledge uncertainties over the rate path in 2025, depending on both incoming data and the US election outcome.
- PDF Here (link)
