FED: US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 5.122%; ALLOT 1.67%

• RES 4: 1.1996 High Jan 29
• RES 3: 1.1929 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1857 High Feb 18 
• RES 1: 1.1849 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 1.1772 @ 15:00 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.1664/1590 50-day EMA / Low Apr 8 
• SUP 2: 1.1505 Low Apr 6 and a key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.1443/11 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1373 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing

New short-term cycle highs posted Friday resulted in price breaking above key resistance at 1.1825. The 1.1849 print tilts the near-term focus higher, raising interest on the 1.1857 and 1.1929 levels - the last of which marks both the mid-February high as well as the 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg. Despite the near-term rally, trend signals continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.1664, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would signal a bear reversal

• Bloomberg running a red headline from ECB’s Lagarde, stating that the ECB needs more data before drawing policy conclusions. As previously noted, recent ECB commentary has pushed back a little on the case for an April hike, but not necessarily overall tightening expectations.
• Developments have been consistent with the MNI Policy Team's latest ECB sources piece on April 9: "The ceasefire in the Gulf reduces the urgency for a European Central Bank rate hike in April, Eurosystem officials told MNI, adding that while the situation is highly volatile, more information will be available in June, when there will be a new round of projections and hopefully more clarity on the conflict and its consequences."
• Click here for full our latest ECB speak wrap, published last week: https://media.marketnews.com/260415_ECB_Speak_Wrap_3bc0338a62.pdf

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included: 

• ERM6 97.75/97.87/7.93/98.06 broken call condor, bought for 4.75 in 5k (ref 97.70)
• ERM6 97.75/97.87/7.93/98.06 broken call condor, sold at 4.75 in 9.5
• ERN6 97.68/97.75/97.87/97.93c condor with ERQ6 97.68/97.75/97.87/97.93c condor, bought as a strip for 2.75 in 7.2k
• ERN6 97.68/97.81/97.87/98.00c condor, bought for 3 in 10k
• 0RN6 97.75/98.00/98.25c fly, sold at 2.25 in 5k
• 2RU6 97.50/98.00 call spread 8K given at 11.25
• SFIM6 95.25p, bought for half in 10k
• SFIM6 95.95/96.05/96.15c fly, sold at 1 down to 0.75 in 8k
• SFIN6 96.20/96.40/96.60c fly vs SFIM6 96.25/96.35/96.45c fly, bought the July for 2 and 2.25 in 10k