GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: US Tells Netanyahu Only 'Surgical' Lebanon Strikes -Axios

source:  Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI 

The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5700 - 0.5749, Asia is currently trading around 0.5720. The NZD continued to trade heavily as the risk-back drop and month-end USD demand looked to have weighed on it before finding some demand return back toward 0.6700. Risk remains under pressure and is at risk of turning into an actual Bear market. I continue to be skewed toward fading the bounce, and will be watching for any relief rally after a decent move lower. On the day, the first resistance is around 0.6750-0.6775 and then the more important 0.5825-0.5875 area. The target for this break lower is the 0.5500-0.5600 area. 

• MNI AU -  Monitor Prices/Costs In Today’s ANZ Business Survey: The focus of the week is likely to be on Today’s March ANZ business survey which will include early effects of the rise in fuel prices and the current geopolitical uncertainty on business sentiment, activity and pricing. Business inflation expectations, pricing intentions and costs will be of particular interest. February inflation expectations at 2.9% were already their highest since Q3 2024
• CFTC Data up to 24/03/2026 shows Asset Managers beginning to add back to back their  reduced short positions in the NZD, -25012(Last -22101). The Leveraged community added slightly to their own newly newly built shorts, -16730(Last -15917). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5975(NZD952m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5875(NZD426m April 1) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 56 Points
• Data/Event: ANZ Business Confidence

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI