GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: US Pitches New Coalition To Get Ships Moving In Hormuz

• MNI JAPAN MARCH TOKYO CORE CPI +1.7% Y/Y; FEB +1.8%
• JAPAN MARCH TOKYO CORE-CORE CPI +2.3% Y/Y; FEB +2.5%
• JAPAN MARCH SERVICES PRICES +1.5% Y/Y; FEB +1.5%

JGB futures held comfortably above 130.00 as Monday's session unfolded, but couldn't test meaningfully above 130.40 (session highs were at 130.46). We track finished up at 130.27, -.07 versus settlement levels. Recent lows near 129.80 remain intact. The early impetus today may be for a further move higher in futures, given the strong move up in US Tsy futures in Monday trade. Further risk aversion in the equity space, coupled with balanced remarks from Fed Chair Powell aided the moves (as market pricing around Fed hike risks this year be pared back further).   

• Tokyo CPI for March just printed, which was slightly below market forecasts. Headline CPI printed at 1.4%y/y, versus 1.6% forecast. The core ex fresh food measure rose 1.7% (versus 1.8% forecast), while the ex fresh food, energy measure printed in line at 2.3%y/y, but was down % forecast. from the 2.5% pace in Feb. The Feb jobless rate printed at 2.6%, versus 2.7% forecast.
• JGB futures remain comfortably under key resistance points, even after Monday's bounce. The 50-day EMA rests closer to 131.85. on the topside.
• In the cash JGB space we settled just under 1.37% for the 2yr yesterday, a yield loss of 2bps, while the 10yr ended at 2.374%, a yield loss of 1.4bps. 20-40yr tenors held firm yield gains. The 20yr to 3.31%, up 4bps. Recall earlier Jan highs for this benchmark were above 3.40%. The 40yr rose 10bps to 4.03%. The 2/30s curve steepened strongly to +242bps, up around 9bps.
• Globally, growth concerns helped keep front end yield anchored lower yesterday. Japan may benefit from such trends, but is likely to lag, given the low starting point for the BoJ policy rate and some viewpoints it is behind the inflation curve. 

• MNI JAPAN FEB JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 2.6% FROM JAN 2.7%