Renewed sterling weakness and a slightly stronger dollar has pressured GBPUSD to a fresh 2-month low on Wednesday as pessimism for GBP continues its prevalence amid increasing signs that UK Chancellor Reeves will have to raise income tax at the November 26 budget to fill a widening fiscal hole. The pair has breached the 1.3249 bear trigger and Oct 14 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and exposing key support at 1.3142, Aug 1 low.
Australian CPI beating expectations has materially curbed RBA easing expectations, with the first cut now not fully priced until May next year. While current levels around the 0.6600 handle would lead AUDUSD to extend its winning streak to six consecutive sessions, price action for now has stopped short of the 0.6629 Sep 30 and Oct 1 highs. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
JPY saw another volatile overnight session, with USDJPY already seeing a near 100 pip range Wednesday. Earlier strength driven by US Tsy Secretary Bessent encouraging the Japanese government to let the BoJ deal with higher inflation was later countered by positive risk sentiment amid further encouraging headlines on US-China trade ahead of tomorrow's Trump-Xi meeting. Drivers for USDJPY remain plentiful with the BoJ meeting due before tomorrow's European open, focus is on hiking risks into year end/early 2026 assuming the consensus view of a hold at the meeting will be realized.
Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions are the highlight today, with both being expected to result in 25bps cuts. With limited new developments and official data to opine on, Chair Powell’s press conference will be eyed for affirmation that a December cut remains on track, as signalled by the most recent Dot Plot. Focus is also on the balance sheet, with the Fed likely to announce an end to quantitative tightening amid diminishing reserve levels and nascent evidence of funding market pressures.