STIR: US Front Rates Await US Session Whilst Terminal Yield Pushes Lower Still
May-01 10:35
- Fed Funds implied rates for 2025 meetings have more than reversed a small lift in Asia hours with downward pressure from crude oil futures.
- Looking more broadly though, they continue a pattern seen throughout this week whereby Asia/London hours see flat to slightly higher rates before sharper declines through NY hours.
- Whilst off yesterday’s lows, implied rates still point to over 100bp of cuts for the rest of the year having reversed a shift to ~75bp of cuts seen after the 90-day tariff pause on Apr 9.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2bp for next week, 17.5bp Jun, 41bp Jul, 64bp Sep and 103bp Dec.
- SOFR futures meanwhile continue to extend gains further out the curve, translating to another 2.5bp dip in the terminal implied yield to 2.915% (SFRU6, last closed lower in Sept) and 3.5bp declines out in 2H27 contracts.
- Today’s data includes Challenger job cut announcements, weekly jobless claims, the final manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing, all before tomorrow’s NFP report.
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ESM ISSUANCE: 3-Month ESM-Bill
Apr-01 10:32
| Type | 3-month bills |
| Maturity | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.092bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.083bln |
| Avg yield | 2.262% |
| Previous | 2.355% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.39x |
| Previous | 2.81x |
| Previous date | Mar 04, 2025 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle IN GBPUSD Points North
Apr-01 10:31
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD is bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.0733, the Mar 27 low, marks a key near-term support. A move through it would confirm a clear breach of the 20-day EMA and signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0656. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.0955, the Mar 18 high.
- GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and importantly for bulls, the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs and above last week’s lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2887, is intact. A breach of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA is required to instead signal scope for a deeper correction.
- USDJPY is trading below last week’s high. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 150.86 - is intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish.
MNI: REMINDER: Livestream MNI Connect With BOE's Breeden On Apr 10
Apr-01 10:30
You are invited to listen to a Livestreamed MNI Connect Video Conference with BOE's Sarah Breeden.
Details below:
- TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects
- DATE: Thursday, 10 Apr 2025
- TIME: 14:00 - 15:30 BST
- This event will be run as a Zoom Webinar and is a public, on-the-record event.
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
