OIL PRODUCTS: US Boosts Distillates Exports To Europe, Loses Market Share In Brazil

Jun-07 07:31

US diesel and gasoil exports to Europe rose to around 290kbpd in May, the highest level since August 2019, as Europe replaced missing Russian imports with US products, while Brazil has been replacing US products with Russian origin, Kpler data showed.

  • While Europe has ramped up distillates imports from the US, Brazil has replaced some of its US imports with Russian origin amid cheaper prices. Russian diesel arrives in Brazil at a 20-30% discount compared to other origins, the head of the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom) said.
  • “This is both a pull to Europe, which needs supply, as much as a push away from Brazil, where it is harder to compete on price,” said a distillate trader.
  • US distillates exports to Brazil fell to 21kbpd in May, Refintiv data showed, compared with 44kbpd in March, an eight-year low, latest US Official Government Data showed.
  • At the same time Brazil ramped up distillates imports from Russia that rose to 138kbpd in May and are expected to rise to 184kbpd in June according to Kpler.

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: Equities push to session highs

May-08 07:25
  • The Bounce in Risk, Equities at session high, keep the lid on the USD, and the Aussie test new high versus the EUR, USD, JPY.
  • The price action in risk provides some selling interest in Bonds, TYM3 sold in 3k, while EGBs drift to session low.
  • Support in Bund is still at 135.62.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

May-08 07:12
  • RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
  • RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3537/3640 50-day EMA / High May 3
  • RES 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
  • PRICE: 1.3354 @ 08:06 BST May 8
  • SUP 1: 1.3443 Low May 5
  • SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
  • SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2

USDCAD remains soft following last week’s sell-off and bearish acceleration on Friday. Price has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 1.3302, the Apr 14 low where a break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3275, the Feb 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3537, the 50-day EMA.

CROSS ASSET: Some downside traction

May-08 07:05
  • Further downside continuation for the Dollar, Cable continues to trade at its highest level since May 2022, and next immediate resistance comes at 1.2667, the May 2022 high.
  • AUDUSD still eye 0.6805 next.
  • European Equities are starting to drift lower, which may limit further push lower in the USD.