GERMAN DATA: Upside GDP Surprise Wards Off Recession - For Now
Oct-28 08:17
GERMANY Q3 FLASH GDP +0.3% Q/Q (FCST -0.2%); Q2 +0.1% Q/Q
GERMANY Q3 FLASH GDP WDA +1.2% Y/Y (FCST +0.7%); Q2 +1.7% Y/Y
- German GDP surprised to the upside in the Q3 flash estimate, advancing by +0.3% q/q, a 0.2pp uptick on Q2 growth and beating expectations of a -0.2% q/q contraction. Annualised GDP was also stronger than anticipated at +1.2 % y/y.
- Private consumption was the driver of Q3 growth.
- In comparison to pre-pandemic Q4 2019, price and calendar-adjusted GDP exceeded pre-pandemic levels (by +0.2%).
- This data signals that the German economy is more robust than anticipated, following consumer demand surveys, IFO and ZEW surveys signalling the onset of a recession.
- The marked upside surprise to German GDP will outpace the marginal downside surprise in the Spanish data this morning. This could see EZ GDP stabilise at a flat reading (currently consensus is looking for -0.1% q/q).
- German CPI is due at 1300 BST following this monring's slew of state data, with another uptick likely to weigh on growth headed into Q4.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Q4 Bubill calendar changes
Sep-28 08:13
- Additional 2-month bubill auctions of E2bln on 14 November and 21 November.
- Additional 3-month bubill auction of E2bln on 5 December.
- 3-month bubill auctions to be increased from E3bln to E5bln on 10 October, 31 October and 28 November.
BRAZIL: Lastest Quaest Poll Has Lula Over 50% In First Round Election
Sep-28 08:13
The latest opinion poll from outlet Quaest, released less than a week before the 2 October presidential election shows leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva leading with 51% of the vote, compared to 36% for right-wing Liberal Party incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.
- Brazil (Presidential election, first round), Quaest poll: Lula (PT): 51% (+2), Bolsonaro (PL): 36% (-2), Gomes (PDT, centre-left): 7% (-), Tebet (MDB, centre-right): 5% (-). (+/- vs. 17-20 September 2022) Fieldwork: 24-27 September 2022, Sample size: 2,000
- Brazil (Presidential election), Quaest poll: Second round: Lula (PT): 58% (+2), Bolsonaro (PL): 42% (-2), (+/- vs. 17-20 September 2022), Fieldwork: 24-27 September 2022, Sample size: 2,000
- Should Lula manage to secure over 50% of the vote in Sunday's election it would negate the need for a second round vote on 30 October (should be noted that the 51% secured by Lula is within the margin of error over the 50% threshold on the poll).
- There remains the notable risk of post-election unrest or a sustained political showdown if the 2 October election shows a first-round win for Lula. The Bolsonaro campaign has talked up the risk of electoral fraud during the campaign.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: German Q4 issuance: E10.5bln more cap mkt, E12bln more bubills
Sep-28 08:08
- German issuance for Q4 has been revised up by E22.5bln (comprising E10.5bln of extra capital market issuance and E12.0bln of additional bubill issuance).
- New 7-year Bund maturing Nov-29 to be issued for E4bln on 18 November, with E4bln on 15 November.
- 0% Green Aug-31 additional E1.0bln auction on 2 November.
- Bobl auction size on 25 October increased from E3bln to E4bln.
- 15y 1.00% May-38 Bund auction size increased from E1.0bln to E1.5bln.
- Bubill calendar changes to follow.
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