JGBS: Unwinding Of Post-Election Sell-Off Continues

Feb-10 04:12

JGB futures are stronger, +43 compared to settlement levels, and at session bests on a data-light day.

  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
  • Wednesday sees an unusual BLS nonfarm payrolls report after a brief delay following last week's government shutdown, with January details released at 0830ET. The report will need to be assessed holistically rather than focusing on any single number, although the unemployment rate should offer the cleanest single take. Consensus looks for a circa 70k increase in nonfarm payrolls coming almost entirely from private payrolls. (See MNI US Payroll Preview here)
  • The local calendar will also see Machine Tool Orders data later.
  • "Japanese bonds are performing better than feared by some investors after the elections, partly because there is a delay to the sales tax cut, which had been flagged ahead of the vote." - BBG
  • Cash JGBs are 2-4bps richer across benchmarks, with the futures-linked 7-year once again leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.8bps lower at 2.261% versus the cycle high of 2.359%.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bp richer, with a flattening bias.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see PPI and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data.

Historical bullets

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Recovery Mode

Jan-10 22:45
  • RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
  • RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
  • RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12  
  • PRICE: 95.890 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 9
  • SUP 1: 95.740 - Low Dec 22
  • SUP 2: 95.480 - Low 1st Nov ‘23
  • SUP 3: 94.932 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support. 

MNI: MNI TEST 02, Please Ignore

Jan-09 23:36

Test Test TEST

MNI: MNI Test, Please Ignore

Jan-09 23:30

Test, ignore