US DATA: Unemployment Rate Would Have Been Even Lower Absent Population Updates
The BLS's "population control" update has had an impact on the unemployment rate as published for January, which fell to 4.011% unrounded (from 4.086% in December), below the consensus of an unrounded 4.1%. This was the lowest reading since May 2024.
- MNI's calculations show that the unemployment rate would have been 3.999% (0.012 percentage points) lower in the absence of the population control changes (we are not sure how BLS arrived at the unemployment rate figures in their table below which appear to be a decimal place off, but either way, the direction is the same). The last time we saw a sub-4% print, unrounded or otherwise, was May 2024.
- Population controls reflect updated population estimates but don't alter historical data. This series break means that changes in employment and unemployment between Dec and Jan can’t be directly compared.
- The number of unemployed dropped 37k in January vs December, but their number would have dropped 142k absent the population control effect, while the civilian labor force rose 91k absent the population control.
- The adjusted rise in employment in January vs December was 234k (a pullback from 478k in December), with 85k added to the ranks of "not in the labor force".
- Prime-age (25-54) unemployment was down to 3.36%, an 8-month low, with the drop from 3.49% in December appearing to reflect population control effects at least in part.
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BONDS: OAT Block trade
OAT Block trade, suggest seller:
- OATH5 ~1.66k at 121.86.
There's also wider selling emerging again in EGBs, but small gradual moves for now.
US DATA: Surprisingly Healthy Initial Jobless Claims
The jobless claims data were on balance a little better than expected. New claims hit their lowest single week since Feb’24 and with the four-week average not too far off at its lowest since April, but continuing claims surprised a touch higher. It looks like the trend of companies managing headcount through slower rehiring rather than layoffs is still intact.
- Initial jobless claims surprised lower at 201k (sa, cons 215k) in the week to Jan 4 after an unrevised 211k.
- The four-week average fell 10k to 213k, its lowest since Apr’24 and through the 2019 average.
- Continuing claims on the other hand were a little higher than expected at 1867k (sa, cons 1860k) in the week to Dec 28 after a downward revised 1834k (initial 1844k).
- Timing of the festive period can make seasonal adjustment difficult but the non-seasonally adjusted 305k is at the low end of recent years.
- Note that by state, the 22.4k increase in NY (which drove the 21.3k increase in national claims) to 37.5k was in keeping with typical starts to the year.
PIPELINE: $4.25B IADB 5Y SOFR Debt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $4.25B #IADB 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $1.5B #Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $500M Novelis 5NC2
- 01/08 $Benchmark AIIB 5Y +47a
- 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Northwestern Mutual 5Y +70a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Deutsche Bank 4NC3 fix/SOFR
- 01/08 $Benchmark Codelco 10Y +195a, 30Y +215a
- 01/08 $Benchmark HF Sinclair 6Y +165a, 10Y +185a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Santander UK 6.25NC5.25 +150a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
