FRANCE DATA: Unemployment Rate Rises 0.2ppt, Sharp Rise in Youth Unemployment

French mainland unemployment ticked up 0.2ppt to 7.7% in Q4, against consensus of a stable 7.5% print - this marks the highest level since Q3 2021. INSEE notes a sharp rise in youth unemployment which helped the move higher, though both the overall and youth activity rates also increased.

• The mainland unemployment rate had been within a 6.9-7.3% range between Q4-21 and Q1-25, but over the past year the rate has seen four consecutive quarterly rises to stand 0.4ppt above this range.
• The all-France (excl. Mayotte) unemployment rate (which has been almost perfectly correlated with the mainland rate) came in at 7.9%, also up 0.2ppt from Q3, and also 0.4ppt above the Q4-21 to Q1-25 range.
• Underlying this, and looking at changes over four quarters, youth unemployment (aged 15-24) increased 2.4ppt to 21.5% (up 2.8ppt vs Q4 25), while the 25-49 year-old rate decreased 0.2ppt to 6.9%, and over 50s rate remained stable at 5.1%.
• Supporting the move higher in the youth unemployment rate, youth employment again fell 0.3ppt to 34.3% in Q4, though INSEE notes it remains 0.4ppt above its Q4-24 level.
• However, the activity rate (aged 15-64) rose 0.2ppt to 75.4% (the highest on record since 1975), while the youth activity rate (15-24) increased 0.8ppt to 43.6% (1.9ppt higher than a year ago).
• The long-term unemployment rate (jobseeking for at least one year) remained stable over the quarter and was mostly unchanged across 2025 (up 0.1ppt), at 1.8%.