US DATA: Underlying Core Goods Inflation Matches Previous Mid-2025 Peak

• It is worth highlighting that EURGBP has been testing trendline support in recent sessions. Drawn across the March and June lows from last year, the line intersects at 0.8653 today. Morgan Stanley have noted this level and believe EURGBP looks poised for a rebound, given both RSI and Bollinger bands suggest the cross has entered oversold territory, while also highlighting that positioning is stretched with GBP/EUR in the 92nd percentile.
• MS economists are below consensus on the upcoming UK employment data and their forecast of 3.99% for RPI is noticeably below RPI fixings (4.23%). This contrasts with market pricing of only 1-2bp of cuts at the February meeting, while their economists expect a 25bp cut.
• MS say at the same time, volatility is favourable for EURGBP longs and recommend buying a 1m 1x1 EUR/GBP call spread (buy ATMF, sell 0.8840 strike) at market. Importantly, the one-month covers both employment and CPI data, as well as the next BOE decision.
• We highlight that on the upside, primary resistance to watch is 0.8727, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would be needed to indicate a possible technical reversal.

• Supreme Court's second opinion of the day is not tariffs: Fourth Amendment case Case v. Montana, Scotusblog reports
• Judging by the amount of boxes presented to press, there could be 1 or 2 further case rulings today - but still no certainty IEEPA tariffs will be covered. 

Supreme Court's first opinion of the day is "Barrett vs United States", ie not tariffs, Scotusblog reports.

• Because there are likely so many Supreme Court opinions (possibly 3-4) out today, and not in any particular order as far as we know, we will only know what the other ones are as they come out, so stay tuned.
• The time frame today depends on how many opinions, and how long the opinions are as the justices read out the summaries. Could be very short (all done in next 15 minutes), or an hour or longer. it's unknown.