LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Aug-05 05:23
Date UK Period Event
05-Aug 0930 Jul S&P Global Final Composite & Services PMI
06-Aug 0001 Jul BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
06-Aug 0930 Jul S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
06-Aug 1200 APF Quarterly Report
13-Aug 0700 Jun/Jul Labour Market Survey
14-Aug 0700 Jul Consumer inflation report / Producer Prices
15-Aug 0700 Jun GDP / Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction
15-Aug 0700 Q2 GDP First Estimate
16-Aug 0700 Jul Retail Sales
19-Aug - DMO to hold quarterly investors / GEMM consultation
21-Aug 0001 Jul Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
21-Aug 0700 Jul Public Sector Finances
22-Aug 0930 Aug S&P Global Flash PMI
22-Aug 1100 Aug CBI Industrial Trends
23-Aug 0001 Aug Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
27-Aug 0001 Aug BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
27-Aug 1100 Aug CBI Distributive Trades
30-Aug 0930 Jul BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals
02-Sep 0930 Aug S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI
03-Sep 0001 Aug BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
04-Sep 0930 Aug S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services & Composite PMI
05-Sep 0930 Aug S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI

Historical bullets

US: First Look At Biden's ABC Interview Expected Shortly

Jul-05 22:24

18:30 ET 23:30 BST: ABC's "World News Tonight with David Muir" is expected to broadcast shorty the first clips from today's interview with US President Joe Biden, conducted by George Stephanopoulos. Detail can be found on the ABC website here.

  • ABC notes: "A first look will air on the Friday, July 5, edition of "World News Tonight with David Muir" and the interview will air in its entirety as a primetime special Friday, July 5 at 8/7c on ABC News. The interview and additional analysis will air again Sunday, July 7 on "This Week.""
  • The stakes are exceptionally high for Biden with pressure to intensify on the President to step aside if he fails to deliver an assured performance. MNI's Political Risk team examines the challenging political environment for Biden as he seeks to resurrect his re-election bid following a shaky first debate performance. MNI US Elections Weekly

USDCAD TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bear Cycle

Jul-05 20:00
  • RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
  • RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
  • RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
  • RES 1: 1.3675 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.3632 @ 16:23 BST Jul 5 
  • SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
  • SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
  • SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

USDCAD rallied into the Friday close, however the short-term bearish threat remains in place as resistance stayed untroubled across the week. Note that price has breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3675. This reinforces bearish conditions and has also resulted in a print below 1.3590, May 16 low. An extension would expose 1.3590, the May 16 low and key support. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Breakout

Jul-05 19:30
  • RES 4: 0.6839 High Jan 2
  • RES 3: 0.6771 High Jan 3                  
  • RES 2: 0.6752 High Jul 05
  • RES 1: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg   
  • PRICE: 0.6742 @ 16:22 BST Jul 05
  • SUP 1: 0.6660 20-day EMA   
  • SUP 2: 0.6630 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact. A strong rally this week resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement, was tested - but prices faded off the mark into the European close. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6626, the 50-day EMA.