LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 02-Jan | 0930 | Dec | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 04-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE Lending to Individuals/M4 |
| 04-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE's Monthly Decision Maker Panel data |
| 04-Jan | 0930 | Dec | S&P Global Final UK Composite/Services PMI |
| 05-Jan | 0930 | Dec | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 12-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP / Services/ Production / Trade |
| 12-Jan | 0700 | Nov | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | UK Labour Report |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 19-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 23-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Dec | Xpert HR pay deals for whole economy |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 26-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Jan | BOE M4/Lending to Individuals |
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US TSYS: Tsys Hug Highs Ahead Fed Blackout.
- Tsy futures drifting near session highs after the bell, Mar'24 10Y futures tested technical resistance of 110-25 (1.00 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing) earlier, currently trading back to 110-22 (+28.5).
- Curves mostly steeper with the exception of 3M10Y: -8.409 at -115.838; 2Y10Y +2.109 at -33.688. Short end pressured after Block sale in 2Y at 102-17 before a Block buy of 6,000 FVH4 107-16.25, trades 107-17.5 last +22.25, DV01 $254,400.
- Fed Funds implied rates show a cumulative 18bp of cuts priced for the March FOMC (from 12bp before ISM mfg), 36bp for May and now have three 25bp cuts with July. Cumulative cuts build to 128bp for end-2024, from 111bp before ISM and 120bp pre-Powell.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday the U.S. central bank is prepared to raise interest rates again if needed even as he acknowledged "considerable progress" in reducing high inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The Fed would continue to make decisions "meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data," he said.
- Fed enters policy blackout tonight through December 14. Focus on Monday's data calendar: Factory Orders, Durable and Cap Goods, US Tsy $75B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions.
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3924 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3777 High Nov 16
- RES 1: 1.3675 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3503 @ 16:44 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 1.3496/95 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase/Low Dec 1
- SUP 2: 1.3492 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
- SUP 4: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
USDCAD maintains a softer tone and traded lower into the Friday close, reinforcing the overriding bearish theme. The recent break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3496 next, a Fibonacci retracement - pierced on Friday. Initial key resistance remains at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6723 High Aug 1
- RES 2: 0.6711 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.6676 High Nov 29
- PRICE: 0.6656 @ 16:42 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 0.6525 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6472 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
- SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. This week’s rally has reinforced the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Price has also traded through 0.6656, 61.8% of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6711, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. On the downside, firm support is seen at 0.6525, the 20-day EMA.
