POWER: UK December Edges Down on Energy Complex, Nuclear Works Limit
Nov-05 08:20
The UK December is edging down slightly as losses in NBP and UK emissions weigh down the product, while upcoming nuclear maintenance will reduce supply. Temperatures have been generally revised higher on the day and will flip below the 30-year norm over 18-19 November.
- UK Base Power DEC 25 (BFV) down 0.4% at 84.70 GBP/MWh
- UK Emissions Dec F1 down 1% at 57.96 GBP/MT
- UK NBP December 25 down 1.6% at 83.64 GBp/therm
- NBP December is dropping to track price falls in TTF as upside is limited by rising LNG imports, enabling a small build in underground storage levels while mild weather and rising wind next week ease demand pressures.
- UKAs Dec25 contract is being weighed down by losses in EU ETS.
- Works at the 620MW Hartlepool 2 are still due to end 19 November, with maintenance at the 620MW Hartlepool 1 nuke to end on 2 December, latest Remit data show.
- Additionally, the 640MW Torness 2 nuke in the UK will now have planned works over 6-22 November compared to 5-22 November, with the 640MW Torness 1 offline for works over 26 November-17 December latest Remit data show.
- Mean temperatures in London have been generally revised higher over 6 – 10 November by as much as 3C. Temperatures are anticipated to remain above the seasonal norm until flipping below over 18-19 November.
- Closer in, average temperatures in London are forecast to drop to 14.2C on 6 November from 15.1C on 5 November but above the seasonal norm of 8.9C.
- Gas consumption in the UK is expected to remain relatively unchanged on the day at 102.8Mcm on 6 November compared to 102.5Mcm on 5 November – albeit revised slightly lower on the day.
- Power demand in the UK has been revised lower over 5-8 November by as much as 700MW. Demand is forecast to drop to 30.58GW on Thursday compared to 31.05GW on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in the UK is forecast at 5.96GW during base load on Thursday, or a 21% load factor, down from 11.90GW on Wednesday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Additionally, UK wind is anticipated to peak next week on 12 November at a 52% load factor before dropping the next day.
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Oct-06 08:20
SFIF6 96.20/96.10ps vs 0NF6 96.30/96.20ps, bought the front for half in 5k.
FRANCE: Lecornu Resigns After Naming Largely Unchanged Government
Oct-06 08:13
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has presented his resignation to President Emanuel Macron after a broadly unchanged government Lecornu named on Sunday evening was criticised by party leaders from both the right and the left. Bloomberg reports that Lecornu will deliver press remarks in Paris at 10:45 CET, 09:45 BST, 04:45 ET.
- Politico described Lecornu's government as "a sign that the political forces represented in Macron's successive administrations remain broadly the same, despite Lecornu's being the French president's fifth prime minister in less than two years.”
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- Le Monde reports, “Over the weekend, Lecornu sent a letter to the leaders of Macron's centrist camp and LR pleading for unity. "With only a very narrow majority, the government will have to make compromises with other political groups, without abandoning its convictions.”
- Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said this morning, "The prevailing sentiment is one of dismay ... The reality is that we are witnessing an unprecedented political crisis."
- National Rally President Jordan Bardella said, "There can be no return to stability without a return to the polls and without the dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale,"
- Mathilde Panot of the leftist Insoumise party wrote on X, “we demand the immediate examination of the motion filed by 104 deputies for the impeachment of Emmanuel Macron.”
GOLD: Heading towards $4000.00
Oct-06 08:10
- Despite the Dollar Bid, Gold is still acting as a much better Safer Haven, at a new all time record high, next projection comes at $3987.3 - 2.236 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing.
- But the Globe will be fixated on the big Psychological $4000.00 round number.
