BTP TECHS: (U5) Still Trading Inside A Range
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
- PRICE: 120.14 @ Close Aug 21
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. However, for now, the contract continues to trade inside a range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.
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USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 147.95/149.18 High Jul 22 / 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 147.17 @ 07:00 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 146.20 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 145.88 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 144.23 Low Jul 7
- SUP 4: 142.68 Low Jul 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback - a correction. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. Recent strength resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Recent Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont)
- RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
- RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
- RES 1: 5420.00 High Jul 18
- PRICE: 5368.00 @ 06:38 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Jul 22
- SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30
- SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch is 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle 7 and open 5500.00.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Germany and Italy still look to hold auctions this week, with Germany already having come to the market on Tuesday. We pencil in a summer slowdown in issuance to E10.8bln, down from E33.4bln last week.
- Germany will return to the market today with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056) on offer.
- Italy will come to the market tomorrow with a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 2.10% Aug-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005657330) alongside E1.25-1.50bln of the 1.10% Aug-31 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005657348).
