BTP TECHS: (U5) Still Trading Inside A Range

•  RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 147.95/149.18 High Jul 22 / 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 147.17 @ 07:00 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 146.20 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 145.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.23 Low Jul 7 
• SUP 4: 142.68 Low Jul 1 and a key support 

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback - a correction. Short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.88, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. Recent strength resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement.

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5420.00 High Jul 18  
• PRICE: 5368.00 @ 06:38 BST Jul 23 
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 2: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch is 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle 7 and open 5500.00.

Germany and Italy still look to hold auctions this week, with Germany already having come to the market on Tuesday. We pencil in a summer slowdown in issuance to E10.8bln, down from E33.4bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily publication with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, click here. 

• Germany will return to the market today with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056) on offer.
• Italy will come to the market tomorrow with a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 2.10% Aug-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005657330) alongside E1.25-1.50bln of the 1.10% Aug-31 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005657348).