US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 114-14 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 1: 112-12+/15 High Jul 1 / 61.8% of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- PRICE: 111-22+ @ 11:11 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 111-20+ Intraday low
- SUP 2: 111-07+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 110-30 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 110-16 Low Jun 20
A bull cycle in Treasury futures remains intact, however, price reversed hard off highs into Tuesday’s close. Attention is on the next important resistance at 112-15, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 steep sell-off. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and expose 112-23, the May 1 high. Note that the uptrend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this position. First key support to watch is 111.07+, the 20-day EMA.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
LOOK AHEAD: US Manufacturing Surveys And Half An Eye On Fed’s Powell
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 2-Jun 0945 S&P Global PMI mfg final (52.3, 52.3)
- 2-Jun 1000 ISM mfg (48.7, 49.5)
- 2-Jun 1000 ISM mfg prices paid (69.8, 69.0)
- 2-Jun 1000 Construction spending (-0.5%, 0.2%)
- 2-Jun 1015 Logan moderated Q&A (no text)
- 2-Jun 1245 Goolsbee moderated Q&A (text tbd)
- 2-Jun 1300 Powell opening remarks at IF 75th anniversary conf (text only)
- 2-Jun 1300 US Tsy to sell $76bn 13-W, $68bn 26-W bills
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jun02 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1250($1.4bln), $1.1300-05(E1.9bln), $1.1345-50(E1.9bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y159.50(E500mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6400(A$856mln), $0.6425-45(A$789mln)
RIKSBANK: Thedeen: Emphasising Alternative Scenarios More In Communication
Riksbank Governor Thedeen speech on "Monetary policy communication in practice" is here:
Little in the way of commentary ahead of the June 18 decision. But that's not surprising given the content and context of the speech. Thedeen highlights that the current outlook "has led several central banks, including the Riksbank, to emphasise more than before that monetary policy will be determined by new information on the outlook for the economy and inflation. Moreover, some central banks have basically stopped talking about monetary policy going forward"
- "The Riksbank publishes interest rate forecasts because we want to be transparent and provide information that makes it easier to understand how we normally act, which should not be interpreted as information on exactly what we will do"
- "On this basis, it is natural for us to change our interest rate forecast. If conditions change, we may need to adjust monetary policy to keep inflation low and stable".
- "It is important that the uncertainty in the central bank's assessments is recognised and that households, businesses and market participants understand that it exists,” said Mr Thedéen. He thought that this was particularly true for the guidance on future monetary policy, where experience has shown that such guidance can be interpreted as more certain statements than central banks have intended.
- "The Riksbank has continued to publish interest rate forecasts. But we have made some changes to address the communication challenges we have faced, including the communication of the interest rate forecast. We are also now emphasising alternative scenarios more in our communication"
