USDJPY TECHS: Turns Lower

• Treasury futures are extending lows in the last few minutes, Sep'25 10Y futures -15.5 at 110-09, through support at 110-10.5 (Low Jun 16). Next level to watch: 110-03 (76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg).
• Futures have been holding to a lower, narrow band since midmorning - better than average volumes (TYU5 over 1.66M) sees a modest pick up in selling in the last hour. Curves flatter, but well off early lows: 2s10s -.687 at 52.452 (46.396 low), 5s30s -2.342 at 96.329 (64.760 low).
• Futures had rejected the initial post-CPI rally (TYU5 110-30 high) as markets woke up to the fact there were clear signs that tariffs are starting to show up in the core goods data. Higher than expected Empire Mfg contributed to the sell-off at the margins.
• Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index near highs (BBDXY +5.55 at 1208.05) after broader increase in core goods across 56 items for a second month, with a median increase of 0.44% M/M in June is another marked acceleration, threatening to delay the Fed hitting their inflation target.
• Stocks near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed, the Nasdaq outperforming (+147.0 at 20787), buoyed by chip makers after Nvidia green-lighted for exports to China. Gold weaker (-14.32 at 3329.19), crude lower (WTI -0.52 at 66.46).
• Look ahead: June PPI data tomorrow morning followed by several Fed speakers before the Late Friday's policy Blackout starts.

Morning Consult reports that Trump’s approval ratings ticked back up “despite a relatively turbulent week for his administration that featured fresh threats of tariffs and infighting over the Justice Department’s handling of disclosures regarding the Jeffrey Epstein case.”

• The outlet’s latest survey shows “47% of voters approve of his job performance, up 2 percentage points from last week, and 50% disapprove, a 2-point decrease over that time frame. Among Republicans, 89% approve of Trump’s job performance, up from 85% last week.”
• Morning Consult notes: “Trump garnered his best approval ratings on the economy and trade since early June … Voters were 13 points more likely to hear something negative than positive about the economy, but that’s the most favorable margin we’ve measured since mid-May.”
• According to SilverBulletin, Trump's aggregated approval remains stable, albeit on a slightly downward trend. The outlet notes that "individual polls aren’t showing much movement week-to-week. Donald Trump had a net approval rating was -11 in this week’s YouGov/Economist poll and last week’s YouGov/Economist poll."

Figure 1: President Donald Trump's Net Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin

• RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8697 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 0.8672 @ 16:39 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.8630 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 0.8592 20- day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8532 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

A bullish condition in EURGBP remains intact and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The break higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8592, the 20-day EMA.