US TSYS: Tsys Futures Trade In Narrow Ranges, Volumes Well Below Averages
Jan-23 05:04
- There has been very little to mention in tsys futures today, ranges have been very tight, while volumes are well below recent averages. TU is +00⅜ at 102-22¾, while TY is -00+ 108-17+. There has been no notable tsys flow trades.
- Looking at technical levels in the TY contract, The medium-term trend remains bearish and the recovery that started Jan 13, appears to be a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17+. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-16+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
- Cash tsys curve is slightly steeper today, with yields 0.5bps to 1bps lower. The 2yr is -0.8bps at 4.289%, while 10yr is -0.8bps at 4.603%. The 2s10s curve is unchanged at 31bps, after hitting lows of 28.5bps overnight.
- There was little to note from the Trump interview, with part 2 of the interviewing airing at the same time tomorrow on Fox, which will likely focus on foreign policy.
- Cash tsys curve is slightly steeper today, with yields 0.5bps to 1bps lower. The 2yr is -0.8bps at 4.289%, while TY is -0.6bps at 4.605%. The 2s10s curve is unchanged at 31bps, after hitting lows of 28.5bps overnight.
- Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 running largely steady vs. Wednesday's levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 at -0.1bp, Mar'25 at -6.4bp, May'25 at -11.9bp (-12.4bp), Jun'25 at -22.5bp (-22.7bp), Jul'25 steady at -26.6bp.
- Later today we have Jobless claims & Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity.
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CHINA: Country Wrap - Crackdown on Bond Market Underway?
Dec-24 05:00
- A report in China’s 21st Century Business Herald suggests a heavy focus from the PBOC on bond market activity will result in the first batch of finesse being announced imminently with CNY10 m fines to be levied. (source: MNI – Market News).
- Central Bank Drains Liquidity via OMO. (source: MNI – Market News).
- Major equity indices are all positive today with Hang Seng +1.08%, CSI 300 +0.75%, Shanghai +0.68% and Shenzhen +0.40%
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1876 Per USD; Estimate 7.2993
- Bonds: earlier bonds jumped higher in yields on the news story mentioned above only to move quickly back to near flat on the day. 10YR 1.713% (+0.5bp)
Cash Bonds Slightly Richer Ahead Of Holiday
Dec-24 04:54
TYH5 is 108-18, +0-03 from NY closing levels.
- Cash bonds are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session.
- Benchmark yields finished yesterday 3-7bps higher, with the 7-year leading.
- Today will see Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index alongside Tsy $28B 2Y FRN & $70B 5Y Note auctions.
GOLD: Gold Edges Higher on Light Volumes.
Dec-24 04:52
- As the US averted a shutdown data released shows the US consumer’s confidence has slipped for the first time in three months on concerns that the Trump administration will create uncertainty with their policies.
- The Consumer confidence index dipped to 104.7 from 111.7 in the month prior and headline durable good figure of -1.1% MoM was viewed as a miss and despite the data, bonds sold off taking gold with it.
- Opening at $2,612.29 in light volumes it drifted up to $2,619.85.
- Having had a strong year on the outlook for rate cuts, the next few months for gold will hinge on the ability of the Fed Reserve to deliver rate cuts in 2025 and the subsequent impact on the USD.
