US: Trump's Approval Rating Continues To Decline Amid Rising Energy Prices

• RES 4: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 3: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8721 61.8% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8700 50.0% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• PRICE: 0.8685 @ 16:12 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 0.8637/10 Low Mar 26 / 16 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

Recent gains in EURGBP are considered corrective. However, today’s gains have resulted in a breach of resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.8681. The breach of this level strengthens the current recovery and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.8700 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low, where a break is required to resume the bear cycle.   

The French general government deficit for 2025 stood at 5.1% of GDP, in data released by INSEE on Friday, comfirning a notable improvement from the 5.8% in 2024 and 5.4% in 2023. In nominal terms, the improvement vs 2024 is mostly revenue-driven, but expenditure growth did slow year-on-year. State and local government deficits narrowed versus 2024 but social security funds moved into deficit from a surplus.

• Expenditure growth slowed (+2.5% after +4.0% 2024, +3.7% 2023), while revenues accelerated to +3.9% (+3.2% 2024), both faster than nominal GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025.
• The general government deficit stood at E152.5bln, an improvement of E16.6bln from E169.1bln in 2024. Within this, expenditures stood at E1714.1bln, up E41.4bln from 2024, while revenues came in at E1561.6bln, up E58.0bln from 2024.
• State and local government deficits narrowed versus 2024, while social security moved into deficit (see 2nd table below). The press release notes that revenue grew strongly (6.7%), "partly due to the introduction of new taxes" whilst expenditure saw a "contained" 1.2% increase "due to the reduction in support measures for households and businesses in response to rising energy prices. It is driven by social benefits expenditure (including civil servants’ pensions) and interest expenditure."
• Local government: "fell by E2.2bln to E15.6bln. Revenue grew at the same rate as in 2024 (+2.3%, or +E7.2bln in 2025). [...] Expenditure slowed (+1.5% in 2025 or €5.0bn, following +4.7% in 2024)."
• Social security funds: "deteriorated by E7.9bln in 2025 to reach E-6.7bln, despite the usual surplus of Cades (+E15.4bln). Revenues slowed (+2.4% in 2025 after +3.9%), as did the total payroll. Revenue grew at a slower rate than expenditure (+3.4% in 2025 or +E26.2bln, after +5.5%), showing in part structural growth due to the ageing population (affecting pension and healthcare expenditures) but also a reduced dynamic due to smaller increases in social benefits as compared to the previous years."

So far in 2026, January's monthly budget balance figures showed a good start to 2026 for core state deficit tracking (E9.7bln), with improvements remaining revenue-driven (from the back end of 2025). February's monthly data is due this Thursday. Note that the 2026 deficit target is 5.0% of GDP, while the European Commission projected 4.9% in its autumn 2025 forecasts and the target submitted to the EC was 4.7% of GDP.

Bruce Mehlman writes on Substack: “The United States had a historic showing at the Winter Olympics. This year is the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding. And we are at war. In normal times, each would summon national pride and unity. But they’re happening together — the rally-around-the-flag effect should be supercharged.”

• However, Mehlman points out, “The historical record shows [the rally-round-the-flag effect] is more fragile than the conventional understanding... Genuinely large rallies are rare, and many of the smaller ones are confounded or ambiguous.”
• Indeed, Silver Bulletin notes in a March 29 update to the outlet’s presidential approval tracker, “Today, Trump has a net approval rating of -16.7; that’s a record low for his second term. Joe Biden, at this point in his term, sat at a somewhat more comfortable -11.7 net approval.” According to Silver Bulletin’s Iran War Tracker, 53.8% of Americans oppose the war, while 39.3% support it. 

Figure 1: Effect of War on Presidential Approval 

Source: Bruce Mehlman