US: Trump To Address Saudi Investment Forum Shortly

• RES 4: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.7186 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7158 High Feb 2 2023
• RES 1: 0.7147 High Feb 12
• PRICE: 0.7122 @ 21:13 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 0.7018 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6897 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 0.6881 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6834 Low Jan 23

AUDUSD has recovered from Tuesday’s low. The trend structure is bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce the bull theme and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant M/T bullish phase. Potential is seen for a climb towards 0.7186 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support is unchanged at 0.6897, the Feb 6 low.

• RES 3: 136.10 - High Nov 17 ‘25   
• RES 2: 135.35 - 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 ‘25 - Jan 21 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.92 - 100-dma
• PRICE: 132.34 @ 20:52 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: 131.06 - Low Feb 9
• SUP 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 129.06- 1.500 proj of the Aug 6 ‘24 - Mar 26 - Apr 7 ‘25     

JGBs have pulled back from their recent highs. The latest recovery has seen the contract move above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher. An extension would pave the way for a climb towards 133.92, the 100-dma. Key support has been defined at 130.66, the Jan 21 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.

The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5960 - 0.6000, Asia is currently trading around 0.6000. The NZD is being dragged higher by the AUD and the risk backdrop is turning positive. The pivotal resistance toward 0.6100-0.6150 continues to cap for now and the dovish read of the RBNZ has delayed its challenge in the short-term. On the day, price is challenging the top-end of its recent 0.5885-0.6015 range, I will be watching to see if the USD bears can regain control. A break back above 0.6015-0.6030 could signal another push to challenge above 0.6100. The market is short NZD so one to watch if we do get a sustained period of USD weakness. Nvidia results out soon, which could be important for how risk trades from here.

• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5695(NZD577m Feb 27) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 47 Points
• Data/Event: ANZ Business Confidence

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P