IRAN: Trump: Pausing Attack On Energy Plants For 10 Days

• RES 4: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 1.3814 High Jan 30
• RES 2: 1.3733 High Feb 4  
• RES 1: 1.3570/3712 20-day EMA / High Feb 11
• PRICE: 1.3498 @ 20:06 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 1.3434 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 1.3402 Low Jan 22
• SUP 3: 1.3331 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Dec 9 ‘25   

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Price has traded through 1.3509, the Feb 6 low, and 1.3526, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 1.3439 (pierced), the 50.0% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 -  Jan 27 bull cycle. A clear break of this price point would open 1.3331, the Jan 19 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at 1.3570, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a possible early reversal signal.

• RES 4: 1.2081 High Jan 27 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.2007 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.1961 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1857/1929 High Feb 18 / 10
• PRICE: 1.1782 @ 19:48 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 1.1742 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 1.1693 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - 27 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.1670 Low Jan 22
• SUP 4: 1.1573 Low Jan 19 and a key support

A bear cycle in EURUSD remains intact. Last week’s breach of support at 1.1766, the Feb 6 low, strengthens the current bear theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.1693, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. This suggests that the entire bear leg since Jan 27 is likely a correction. Key short-term resistance to watch is 1.1929, the Feb 10 high. A break of this level would be bullish.

Dallas Fed staff research (link) notes the employment declines seen in the most AI-exposed industries, with a disproportionate impact on young employees, but also the fact that these industries have seen above average wage growth. Occupations with greatest exposure to AI also see larger premiums between experienced and entry-level wages, with the former more representative of codified knowledge that is more easily replicated by AI. 

• “Total U.S. employment increased approximately 2.5 percent since ChatGPT's release in fall 2022. However, employment trends vary significantly across sectors. Employment in the computer systems design and related services sector has declined 5 percent. More broadly, employment has declined 1 percent since late 2022 in the 10 percent of sectors most exposed to AI.”
• “This employment decline in AI-exposed industries is falling disproportionately on young employees.”
• “Although employment in computer systems design and other AI-exposed sectors trails the rest of the economy, wage growth in these sectors outpaces national averages. Since fall 2022, nominal average weekly wages nationwide have increased 7.5 percent, while the computer systems design sector has risen 16.7 percent. Among the top 10 percent of AI-exposed industries, wages grew 8.5 percent”
• “AI can substitute for entry-level workers—new graduates with book-learning but no experience—and at the same time complement experienced workers, who have tacit knowledge that cannot be replicated by AI.”
• “The median experience premium is 40 percent, ranging from less than 10 percent for occupations such as fast-food cooks, ticket agents and dry cleaners to more than 100 percent for professions such as lawyers, insurance underwriters, credit analysts and marketing specialists.”