US: Trump Inauguration Speech Confirms Reporting On Exec Order Strategy

Jan-20 17:42

US President Donald Trump's inauguration speech has largely confirmed reporting ahead of today's swearing in ceremony. The speech contained few surprises and hit many of his preferred talking points. 

  • Trump indicated that today's slate of executive orders will primarily pertain to energy and border security. He confirms that he will declare an 'energy emergency' today that will help bolster oil and gas production.
  • Trump says inflation was caused by "massive overspending and escalated energy prices", indicating the route out of inflation is to "drill baby drill."
  • Trump says he will fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up "right to the top" and "export American energy all over the world."
  • As expected, Trump also confirmed he will declare a national emergency at the US-Mexico border that will allow for the immediate enforcement of some hardline border security measures, including deploying military assets to the border and reinstating 'remain in Mexico'.
  • He confirms that he will designate narcotics cartels as foreign terrorist organisations, raising the prospect of US military force within Mexico.
  • Although today's actions don't appear to cover any trade or tariff policy, Trump says he "will begin an overhaul of the trade system," and confirms the establishment of the 'External Revenue Service'.
  • Trump also reiterates his desire to reassert US control over the Panama Canal.
  • Trump says he will direct his Cabinet to "marshal the best powers at their disposal" to "defeat inflation" and "bring down costs and prices". 

Historical bullets

TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'

Dec-20 21:16
  • TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
  • TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
  • TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP

USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective

Dec-20 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
  • PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
  • SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18  
  • SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values 
  • SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

Dec-20 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
  • RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA               
  • RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12  
  • RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
  • SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19 
  • SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
  • SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.