IRAN: Trump: Do We Finish Iran Up or Will They Sign, Let's See

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• It’s a huge week for UK data ahead of next week’s MPC policy decision and MPR release. We think that the biggest UK data release of the upcoming week will be the DMP survey on Friday (which is a survey of CFOs conducted by the Bank of England and has been moved to now be pre-decision).
• Labour market data will kick off the week, with the focus on private regular wage data. This will be pre-war data (covering the 3-months to February) but with most UK pay deals occurring annually between January and April will help to show how much normalisation there had been in wages before any second-round effects start to be considered. 8/10 analyst previews that we have read look for a deceleration of a tenth to 3.2%Y/Y in the 3-months to February from the 3-month to January's 3.31%Y/Y print. This would be further deceleration relative to the BOE's forecast for Q1 of 3.47%Y/Y that was published in its February MPR.
• Headline CPI is expected by 11/17 analyst previews that we have read to increase to 3.3%Y/Y in March from 2.99%Y/Y in February. The biggest driver will be vehicle fuel prices (broadly expected to add 0.25-0.3ppt). There will also be some upward pressure from heating oil (the weight of this is very small but analysts still look for it to add 0.05-0.10ppt to headline CPI). 

• -5,000 SFRU6 96.00/96.25 put spds, 2.5 ref 96.40 at 1122:34ET

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