EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

Aug-14 07:56
  • RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
  • RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
  • RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
  • RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
  • PRICE: 171.13 @ 08:55 BST Aug 14
  • SUP 1: 169.93 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
  • SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

EURJPY is off highs, but the underlying bull trend remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.93. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: FV/US Flattener Blocked

Jul-15 07:54

Latest block trades lodged at 08:36:12 London/03:36:12 NY:

  • FVU5 7.9K lots blocked 108-03.25, looks like a seller.
  • USU5 2.5K lots blocked at 112-25, looks like a buyer.
  • DV01 ~$340K.

NOK: Early Underperformance Fades; Jul 2 High Important Resistance In EURNOK

Jul-15 07:50

Early NOK underperformance has faded a little, with yesterday’s 11.8792 high containing topside in EURNOK for now. Through July, the cross has consolidated the ~4% rise seen following Norges Bank’s surprise 25bp cut on June 19. This has allowed an overbought condition to unwind, providing a more favourable technical backdrop for those expecting NOK weakness to continue. Initial resistance is the July 2 high at 11.9156, clearance of which would expose the psychological 12.0000 handle.

  • Our commodities team highlight that oil is lower on Tuesday, having begun its reversal on Monday as Trump threats towards Russian sanctions were offered a 50-day deadline – easing any fears of short-term disruption.
  • Note that this week’s Norwegian macro calendar is very light, leaving cross-asset dynamics at the fore for NOK FX and rates.

BONDS: Rally Extends

Jul-15 07:48

Not seeing any headlines as the bid extends and flows pick up.