GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

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• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

US President Donald Trump has spoken on Iran ahead of a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House. LIVESTREAM. Trump says that the US is "still carrying out large-scale operations." He justifies military action because Iran "refused to cease its nuclear aspirations" and Iran's ballistic missile programme "acted as a shield" to its nuclear weapons programme. 

• Trump: "For almost 47 years, this regime has been attacking the US... This was our last best chance to strike and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by the regime..."
• He later adds, "we will easily prevail" and says the US "already substantially ahead of its time projections." Adds that the US will do "whatever it takes."  He says, "we projected four to five weeks but have capability to go far longer. We'll do it. I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this."
• Trump says the US objectives are clear: "First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities... and capacity to produce brand new ones... "
• Trump continues, "Second, we're annihilating their navy. Third, we're assuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never have a nuclear weapon. And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime can not continue to arm and fund terrorist armies outside their borders."

Bloomberg News reports "The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military operations against Iran short". 

• BBG: "The countries are seeking to build a wide coalition to advance a swift and diplomatic end to the conflict, the people said, in order to prevent regional escalation and a prolonged energy price shock."
• One of the major concerns for both countries, in addition to the impact on energy markets and their perceptions as 'safe havens' in an unstable region, is their dwindling reserve of air defence capabilities to counter Iranian missiles and drones.
• As noted earlier (see MIDEAST: US Confirms Jets Downed Over Kuwait By Friendly Fire), the asymmetric cost of attack vs. defence when it comes to airborne strikes (see analysis from Kelly Grieco at the Stimson Center think tank here), estimated at USD~177–360mln for Iran's drones and missiles to USD~1.45–2.28bln for the UAE's aerial defences alone, combined with a much longer lede time to build more interceptors compared to drones means significant risks for the Gulf states if Iran engages in a prolonged barrage.