EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8727 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8705 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8665 @ 15:58 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish for now and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8727 the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible reversal.  

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 01/15 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (208k, 215k) Continuing Claims (1.914M, 1.899M)
• 01/15 0830 Import/Export Price Index
• 01/15 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-3.9, 1.0)
• 01/15 0830 Philly Fed Business Outlook (-8.8 rev, -1.0)
• 01/15 0835 Atlanta Fed Bostic moderated Q&A
• 01/15 0915 Fed Gov Barr panel discussion on stablecoins
• 01/15 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W & $90B 8W bill auctions
• 01/15 1240 Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook
• 01/15 1330 KC Fed Schmid on economy/monetary policy
• 01/15 1600 Total Net TIC Flows
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

Nomura: 

• “We revised up our forecast for core PCE inflation in October and November to 0.278% m-o-m (from 0.142%) and to 0.196% (from 0.150%), respectively.”
• They continue to forecast December core PCE inflation of 0.38% M/M.
• They now see core PCE inflation accelerating to 3.1% Y/Y in December vs 2.9% Y/Y prior to today’s PPI release. 

TD Securities: 

• “We look for core PCE to be subdued for October and November before picking up in December due to strong services inflation.”
• “Our Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation forecast of 2.8% is well below the FOMC's December projection of 3.0%, reflecting the downside surprise in the November CPI after collection issues impacted the report.”
• "We see supercore PCE accelerating through the end of quarter, which is likely to keep FOMC hawks on guard. The y/y supercore PCE in December 2025 is likely to reach its highest level since February 2025. However, the core PCE market-based measure — currently running at 2.6% y/y — should allay concerns.”