EURUSD TECHS: Tops Key Medium-Term Resistance
- RES 4: 1.1274 61.8% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.1211 1.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
- RES 1: 1.1155 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 1.1146 @ 05:48 BST Jul 13
- SUP 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.1012 High Jun 22
- SUP 3: 1.1004 Low Jul 12
- SUP 4: 1.0930 20-day EMA
EURUSD traded sharply higher yesterday and continues to appreciate. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above 1.1012, the Jun 22 high and 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and key resistance. The move above 1.1095 confirms a resumption of the M/T uptrend. MA studies are in bull-mode position reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.1185, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.1012.
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SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
- RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
- RES 1: 105.655 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 105.490 @ 05:31 BST Jun 13
- SUP 1: 105.335 Low Jun 6
- SUP 2: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
- SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 104.960 Low Low Mar 13 (cont)
Schatz futures remain below 105.875, the Jun 1 high. The recent recovery is considered corrective - for now. A bearish theme remains intact and the focus is on key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started in March and open the 105.00 handle. Key short-term resistance to watch is seen at 105.655, the Jun 6 high. A break would alter the picture.
EQUITIES: Tech Plays Still Outperforming, PBoC Rate Cuts Helps At The Margins
Regional equities are mostly tracking higher. The China PBoC 7-day cut providing some support, but other themes have been evident. Japan stocks once again leading the move higher. Tech related indices have also risen, following strong gains in Monday US trade. US futures are firmer, Eminis last near 4400, +0.20%, while Nasdaq futures continue to outperform (+0.40%).
- Japan bourses have benefited from positive tech spill over from Monday US trade, while SoftBank rose as much as 7.7% on reports that its Arm chip unit could receive investment from Intel.
- At the break, the HSI is up 0.40%, just below session highs, the tech sub index is +2.10%. China's CSI 300 is only +0.12% higher, with little aggregate benefit from the 7-day repo cut by the PBoC. Still, the real estate sub index is slightly firmer at +0.43%.
- The Taiex is up +1.60%, following the strong +3.3% rally in the US SOX on Monday. The Kospi is +0.40%, but the Kosdaq is doing better at +1.35%.
- In SEA trends are more mixed, Malaysia stocks off by 0.45%, while Indonesia stocks are struggling to stay in positive territory. Some carry over from weaker energy/crude palm oil prices may be weighing.
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
- RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
- RES 2: 1.0812 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.0790 High Jun 12
- PRICE: 1.0781 @ 05:42 BST Jun 13
- SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
- SUP 2: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
- SUP 4: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
EURUSD traded (briefly) higher Monday and pierced initial resistance at 1.0779, the Jun 2 high. A clear breach of 1.0790 would improve short-term conditions for bulls and allow for a stronger correction. This would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0812, where a clear break would further strengthen a bullish theme, suggesting scope for a continuation higher. Key support has been defined at 1.0635, the May 31 and marks the bear trigger.
