RIKSBANK: Thedeen Plays Down Recent Downside Inflation Surprise
"*RIKSBANK THEDEEN:RECENT INFLATION IN LINE WITH OUR FORECASTS" Bloomberg
A reminder that December CPIF-ex energy was three tenths below the Riksbank's December MPR projection of 2.6% Y/Y - so Thedeen is playing down the importance of single-month forecast errors for near-term Monetary policy decisions.
We noted at the time that a string of downside inflation surprises alongside a stalling of the economic recovery is likely required to motivate further easing. The bar to another cut is high.
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SONIA OPTIONS: Call Fly buyer
SFIF6 96.50/96.60/96.70c fly, bought for 1.5 in 5k.
USDCAD TECHS: Bear Theme Intact
- RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 3: 1.3937 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3892 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3823 High Dec 11
- PRICE: 1.3784 @ 08:12 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Sep17
- SUP 2: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
- SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by the recent bearish extension, and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for a test of 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3892, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
- PRICE: 0.6615 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 0.6595 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6562 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A pullback is allowing this condition to unwind. First support to watch is 0.6595, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day average lies at 0.6562. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term support zone. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger.
