EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TENGIZ: update on maintenance works at Tengiz oil field

• RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing 
• RES 1: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.33 @ Close Dec 13 
• SUP 1: 121.07 38.2% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle       
• SUP 2: 120.37 50.0% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle    
• SUP 3: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18    

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a move lower and last week’s sell-off signals potential for an extension near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and this  open 121.07, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.

The Norwegian trade balance was NOK74.2bln in November, from NOK62.6bln last month and NOK75.6bln a year ago. Excluding the offshore sector, Norway ran a deficit of NOK27.4bln, broadly in line with levels a year ago.

• This was the largest monthly trade surplus of 2024, with gas prices reaching the highest levels since March 2023. Natural gas exports totalled NOK6.28bln, up 4% from November 2023.
• Meanwhile, crude exports were down 11.5% Y/Y at NOK37.9bln, a function of both lower prices and volumes. Statistics Norway cites familiar headwinds facing the oil outlook: “Weaker global economic prospects, especially in China” and “Increased production in countries outside the OPEC+ cooperation, such as Brazil and Argentina”.
• Mainland goods exports were up 0.7% Y/Y at NOK64.1bln, with NOK11.9bln in salmon exports (a record high for a single month).
• Both imports and exports of electricity fell as a result of lower prices. 

• RES 4: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 3: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 162.68 61.8% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg  
• RES 1: 161.99 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 161.58 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 158.67/157.87 Low Dec / 09
• SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

EURJPY continues to trade higher as the cross extends the current corrective cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 161.58. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, initial support to watch is 158.67, the Dec 11 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.