BOJ VIEW: TD Defer BoJ Hike Call To June

• RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 184.34/77 Intraday high / High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 183.96 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12 
• SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
• SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle 

EURJPY is trading above its mid-February low. Recent price action has resulted in a breach of 183.73, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. The break continues to highlight a stronger reversal and if correct, opens the next key support at 181.81, the Feb 12 low. Firm resistance at 184.08, the Mar 11 high, has been breached. This exposes 184.77, the Feb 25 high. A clear break of both levels would instead signal a reversal.

EU Cash Opening calls, note that the Estoxx futures in through a contract low for the June expiry.

• Calls: Estox 50: -1.56%, Dax: -1.69%, CAC: -1.23%, FTSE -1.22%, SMI -1.19%.

• RES 4: $4969.0 - 20-day EMA
• RES 3: $4899.7 - 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: $4735.7 - High Mar 20  
• RES 1: $4655.7 - Low Feb 6                        
• PRICE: $4215.2 @ 07:45 GMT Mar 23 
• SUP 1: $4099.2 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: $3945.2 - 1.236 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $3771.1 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing

A bear cycle in Gold remains intact and today’s extension reinforces this theme, and confirms a resumption of the bearish cycle that started Jan 29. Sights are on the $4000.0 next. Further out, the break lower signals potential for an extension towards the $3945.2, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is currently oversold, a recovery would allow this to unfold. Initial resistance is at $4655.7, the Feb 6 low.