POWER: Sweden’s Oskarshamn 3 Nuclear Plant Reduces Output in Forced Halt

• EUR/USD: Oct23 $1.1515-25(E1.1bln), $1.1555-65(E1.3bln), $1.1575(E1.2bln), $1.1650(E1.1bln), $1.1670-80(E1.0bln), $1.1750-70(E2.8bln); Oct24 $1.1500-20(E1.2bln), $1.1635-50(E1.1bln); Oct27 $1.1520-35(E1.2bln), $1.1670-80(E1.1bln), $1.1700-10(E1.1bln)
• USD/JPY: Oct24 Y150.00($2.0bln), Y151.00-20($1.4bln)
• AUD/USD: Oct23 $0.6585-00(A$1.1bln); Oct24 $0.6450(A$1.6bln); Oct27 $0.6490(A$1.8bln)

• Stocks are trading mixed early Tuesday, whipsawing off early session highs - apparently after Pres Trump social media post warning retribution "if Hamas continues to act badly, in violation of their agreement with us."
• While Treasury futures extended early highs (10Y yield fell to 3.9455%), equities managed to recover off lows by midmorning. A noticeable exception: mining stocks underperformed after Gold fell sharply (appr -240.0 at 1050ET to 4115.0, appr -6.3% from session highs).
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 389.05 points (0.83%) at 47,095.25, S&P E-Minis up 10.5 points (0.16%) at 6,784.5, Nasdaq down 32.2 points (-0.1%) at 22,959.71.
• In addition to Materials and Utility Services sector share underperformed: Philip Morris Int -9.54%, Newmont -9.52%, Vistra Corp -3.58%, Albemarle Corp -3.51%, Quanta Services -3.49% and NRG Energy -3.38%.
• On the positive side, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sector shares outperformed in the first half, General Motors surged +14.76% after reporting better than expected Q3 earnings, CarMax +3.97%, Ford Motor +3.96%, Lululemon Athletica +3.27% and Expedia Group +2.94%.
• Supporting the Industrials sector: RTX +8.39%, 3M Co +4.66%, PACCAR +2.78% and Stanley Black & Decker +2.78%

Euribor options activity has moderated a little compared to the previous two weeks, but remains healthy. Participants continue to eye Friday’s October flash PMIs for the next update on Eurozone growth momentum. A weak set of figures would work in favour of recent upside interest, and potentially spur a fresh round of positions looking for an additional ECB rate cut this cycle.

• Call volumes and OI changes continue to outstrip puts. Note that while this has encompassed familiar upside structures expiring in the first half of next year, we’ve also seen examples of paper selling call spreads in the last few sessions.
• Front-end vol has rebounded modestly this month, which alongside rallies in outright futures has benefitted dovish option structures bought in recent weeks. We’ve previously noted significant interest in M6 options, with participants likely viewing the June 2026 expiry as providing sufficient flexibility around the potential timing of an additional ECB rate cut.
• The price of a 98.75 M6 call bought for 1.25 ticks on October 10 has now crept up to 1.75 ticks (data according to Bloomberg).
• Open interest in M6 options currently totals just over 3 million contracts, skewed towards calls. This is only slightly below total H6 option OI (data as of yesterday).
• The 98.25 strike continues to command the largest OI across the next 18 months’ worth of options expiries.