US TSYS: Surprise ADP Jobs Loss Ahead Thursday's June NFP Report
- Treasuries look to finish weaker Wednesday, well off early session highs after a brief knee-jerk reaction to an unexpected ADP private jobs loss rather than an expected gain. Focus turned to trade talk and Thursday's jam-packed data session that includes June NFP as markets are closed Friday for the 4th of July Holiday.
- The Sep'25 10Y contract trades -6 at 111-21.5 vs. session and 1W low of 111-16.5. First key support to watch is 111.07.5, the 20-day EMA. Curves remain steeper but off highs: 2s10s +2.691 at 49.404 (52.814H), 5s30s +1,844 at 94.608 (98.661H).
- ADP private sector employment was much weaker than expected in June as it fell -33k (sa, cons 98k) along with last month’s soft print confirmed with a downward revision to 29k vs the initial 37k. The decline was led by professional & business services (-56k after -13k, its sharpest decline since Feb 2023) and education & health services (-52k after -16k, its sharpest decline since Jul 2020).
- Pres Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam. "The Terms are that Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory, and a 40% Tariff on any Transshipping. In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff."
- Political uncertainty in the UK heavily weighed on sterling Wednesday, as markets speculated that Rachel Reeves’ term as Chancellor of the Exchequer might be coming to an end. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer refused to publicly back his Chancellor, in a testing session of PMQs in the House of Commons, heightening the market’s fiscal concerns.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3957/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.3854 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3702 @ 16:39 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 1.3675 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact. The pair is trading lower today and has pierced support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3957 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3854.
OPTIONS: US Options Roundup - June 2, 2025
Monday's US rates/bond options flow included:
- TYU5 105p, bought for '05 in 5k
- SFRM5 95.68pn sold at 1.75 in 6k (on Block).
- SFRN5 96.75 calls bought for 1.25 in 20k
- SFRM5 96.62c bought for 0.25 in 30k.
- SFRM5 96.00c (x2), with 96.31c (x3), bought as a strip for 1.75 in 4.5k.
- SFRM5 95.81/95.75ps, traded for 6 in 10k total (8k was done on Block).
- SFRZ5 95.75/95.62ps 1x2, traded flat in 2k.
- SFRU5 95.87/95.75/95.68/95.56p condor, sold at 5.75 in 2k and 5.625 in 10k.
- 0QM5/2QM5 96.87c spread, traded for -1 in 1.5k.
0NQ5 96.30/96.50/96.70c fly, bought for 3.75 in 4k.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6493 @ 16:38 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 0.6396/85 2.0% Lower 10-day Bollinger Band / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6385, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
